{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9af60c03-7f18-4233-9e99-b844c68161d0", "symbol": "CODE", "name": "Northcoders Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.092, "architecture_energy": 88.061, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.015, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.26, "rotation_up": 8.28, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 78.19, "downward_expansion": 95.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.194333, 0.210955, 0.230488, 0.244339 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.195, "trend_reference": 0.26275, "distance_from_trend": -0.25785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.062651, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.816497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.995667, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.327586, "excess_performance": -0.378822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.25785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.816497, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.389957, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.327586, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.269991, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80520, "relative_activity": 1.471241, "balance": 0.269991, "dry_up": 1.745605, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077436, "annualized_volatility": 0.401652, "from_high_reference": -0.5125, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.26275, "fair_value_reference": 1.062651, "structural_low": 0.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.037812, "positive_rate": 0.264706, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.059404, "regime_survival": 0.970588, "best_return": 0.12963, "worst_return": -0.478992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.191129, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.217523, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.235294, "worst_return": -0.478992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.42623, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.357678, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": -0.1, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092308, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225352, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.066265, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.874194, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.8, "volume": 6419, "typical_volume": 9153.65, "trend": 2.674333, "fair_value": 2.62125, "relative_strength": -36.172243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.709805, "energy": 92.065825, "activity_lines": [ 1.913333, 2.048364, 2.288381, 2.463677 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 1.75, "volume": 9364, "typical_volume": 9609.3, "trend": 2.631, "fair_value": 2.613257, "relative_strength": -37.998878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.500784, "energy": 88.30678, "activity_lines": [ 1.836667, 1.972727, 2.21681, 2.404043 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 1.7, "volume": 1499, "typical_volume": 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"fair_value": 1.10959, "relative_strength": -40.279257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.704143, "energy": 79.898159, "activity_lines": [ 0.235, 0.244091, 0.254286, 0.264656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.195, "volume": 1736, "typical_volume": 38718.95, "trend": 0.275167, "fair_value": 1.096737, "relative_strength": -40.037269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.184994, "energy": 93.351265, "activity_lines": [ 0.219, 0.234273, 0.247643, 0.259226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.195, "volume": 290890, "typical_volume": 51921.25, "trend": 0.271167, "fair_value": 1.084846, "relative_strength": -39.973262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.669021, "energy": 92.932264, "activity_lines": [ 0.207, 0.225545, 0.2415, 0.254054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1925, "volume": 8997, "typical_volume": 51181.9, "trend": 0.266917, "fair_value": 1.07326, "relative_strength": -40.50561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.28934, "energy": 91.555256, "activity_lines": [ 0.198167, 0.217455, 0.235619, 0.248978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.195, "volume": 80520, "typical_volume": 54729.3, "trend": 0.26275, "fair_value": 1.062651, "relative_strength": -38.995667, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.092316, "energy": 88.060937, "activity_lines": [ 0.194333, 0.210955, 0.230488, 0.244339 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }