{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9af9312c-957d-4f2a-92c6-9526d04f70ba", "symbol": "MLS", "name": "Metals Australia Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.935, "architecture_energy": 73.048, "architecture_maturity": 58.196, "architecture_confidence": 88.581, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 9.67, "upward_expansion": 16.89, "deceleration": 37.36, "rotation_down": 71.93, "downward_expansion": 90.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0178, 0.018927, 0.020152, 0.020815 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.018, "trend_reference": 0.021883, "distance_from_trend": -0.177456, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.024587, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267892, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.352542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.28, "excess_performance": -0.343706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177456, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1013, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267892, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119611, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.28, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.320912, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1861473, "relative_activity": 1.364067, "balance": 0.320912, "dry_up": 1.221605, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119658, "annualized_volatility": 0.556834, "from_high_reference": -0.538462, "from_low_reference": 0.125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.021883, "fair_value_reference": 0.024587, "structural_low": 0.016, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.34375, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.036235, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.057143, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.067144, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.368421, "worst_return": -0.278689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078947, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.118148, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.625, "worst_return": -0.377049, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.070833, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.135269, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.15, "worst_return": -0.311475, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.106061, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.180328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.020533, 0.021109, 0.021462, 0.021996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.02, "volume": 548550, "typical_volume": 1374152.75, "trend": 0.022783, "fair_value": 0.024881, "relative_strength": -16.822156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.209695, "energy": 52.855035, "activity_lines": [ 0.020267, 0.020836, 0.021293, 0.021805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.018, "volume": 1530416, "typical_volume": 1390744.05, "trend": 0.02245, "fair_value": 0.024792, "relative_strength": -24.673903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.2884, "energy": 62.307835, "activity_lines": [ 0.0194, 0.020236, 0.020948, 0.021497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.016, "volume": 2727806, "typical_volume": 1430842.7, "trend": 0.022117, "fair_value": 0.024676, "relative_strength": -34.378346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.87655, "energy": 80.665471, "activity_lines": [ 0.018133, 0.019345, 0.02044, 0.021081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.018, "volume": 1861473, "typical_volume": 1364648.75, "trend": 0.021883, "fair_value": 0.024587, "relative_strength": -28.352542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.935288, "energy": 73.048172, "activity_lines": [ 0.0178, 0.018927, 0.020152, 0.020815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }