{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9afa0efb-98c5-4be1-b097-1aa9469059a2", "symbol": "CRST", "name": "Crest Nicholson Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.83, "architecture_energy": 80.967, "architecture_maturity": 76.84, "architecture_confidence": 94.2, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.52, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 20.57, "deceleration": 37.86, "rotation_down": 55.33, "downward_expansion": 93.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.639867, 0.663036, 0.697852, 0.800664 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.654, "trend_reference": 0.969316, "distance_from_trend": -0.325297, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.615364, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.595138, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.246425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.567417, "excess_performance": -0.618652, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.325297, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.595138, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021197, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.502464, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036317, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.567417, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.802224, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8938357, "relative_activity": 0.65237, "balance": 0.802224, "dry_up": 0.840112, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106568, "annualized_volatility": 0.957262, "from_high_reference": -0.642808, "from_low_reference": 0.097315 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.969316, "fair_value_reference": 1.615364, "structural_low": 0.596, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.009777, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.01537, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.23913, "worst_return": -0.401042, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.082974, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.071511, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.351832, "worst_return": -0.383829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007821, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.129118, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.217817, "worst_return": -0.638117, "sufficient": true }, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.731051, "energy": 51.126263, "activity_lines": [ 0.686067, 0.695309, 0.748007, 0.875604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.627, "volume": 13959180, "typical_volume": 13491194.35, "trend": 1.020427, "fair_value": 1.631122, "relative_strength": -53.611392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.096015, "energy": 80.43724, "activity_lines": [ 0.6622, 0.682164, 0.727842, 0.848615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.617, "volume": 6454982, "typical_volume": 13615125.6, "trend": 0.993812, "fair_value": 1.622909, "relative_strength": -53.934752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.083251, "energy": 85.150782, "activity_lines": [ 0.6406, 0.668345, 0.709767, 0.822587 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.654, "volume": 8938357, "typical_volume": 13701365.95, "trend": 0.969316, "fair_value": 1.615364, "relative_strength": -50.246425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.830351, "energy": 80.966647, "activity_lines": [ 0.639867, 0.663036, 0.697852, 0.800664 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }