{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9afbe665-fc6f-49f2-acf7-c4e98e139ab5", "symbol": "200625", "name": "Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.55, "architecture_energy": 25.094, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.018, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.13, "rotation_up": 30.41, "upward_expansion": 23.39, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 30.67, "downward_expansion": 62.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.363997, 3.291311, 3.385386, 3.539936 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.43, "trend_reference": 3.74163, "distance_from_trend": -0.083287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.573764, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040228, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.915693, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.15099, "excess_performance": -0.15839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083287, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081824, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040228, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179157, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076335, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.15099, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.982338, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15960862, "relative_activity": 0.975122, "balance": 0.982338, "dry_up": 1.311388, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065262, "annualized_volatility": 0.296786, "from_high_reference": -0.311792, "from_low_reference": 0.183485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.74163, "fair_value_reference": 3.573764, "structural_low": 2.898219, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.005812, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.021587, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.262821, "worst_return": -0.185751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011948, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071438, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.490798, "worst_return": -0.320833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00762, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.08598, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.094675, "worst_return": -0.15099, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.565031, 3.719023 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.079955, "volume": 7907297, "typical_volume": 15205250.45, "trend": 3.864963, "fair_value": 3.564174, "relative_strength": -32.212646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.858859, "energy": 71.006034, "activity_lines": [ 3.176881, 3.270504, 3.500603, 3.665733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.96, "volume": 15544232, "typical_volume": 15036755.0, "trend": 3.822963, "fair_value": 3.565041, "relative_strength": -27.827642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.311741, "energy": 77.135943, "activity_lines": [ 3.091621, 3.197433, 3.430275, 3.607348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.33, "volume": 28149569, "typical_volume": 15505939.6, "trend": 3.79263, "fair_value": 3.567538, "relative_strength": -18.586151, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.399258, "energy": 60.149058, "activity_lines": [ 3.153634, 3.20618, 3.400423, 3.575544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.58, "volume": 26204889, "typical_volume": 16307160.5, "trend": 3.769297, "fair_value": 3.571344, "relative_strength": -10.543319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.03942, "energy": 39.676148, "activity_lines": [ 3.298252, 3.262746, 3.398476, 3.561826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.43, "volume": 15960862, "typical_volume": 16368073.95, "trend": 3.74163, "fair_value": 3.573764, "relative_strength": -17.915693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.549558, "energy": 25.093504, "activity_lines": [ 3.363997, 3.291311, 3.385386, 3.539936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }