{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b000c8f-9fbc-4cd1-ab86-295c8420622b", "symbol": "601186", "name": "China Railway Construction Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.913, "architecture_energy": 27.089, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 76.31, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.54, "rotation_up": 27.89, "upward_expansion": 22.34, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 27.7, "downward_expansion": 61.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.208782, 6.13012, 6.269428, 6.468178 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.16, "trend_reference": 6.752911, "distance_from_trend": -0.087801, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.736299, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.727777, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.152682, "excess_performance": -0.109478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.087801, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076799, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203754, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046607, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.147278, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050049, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.152682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.359357, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 255248816, "relative_activity": 1.168722, "balance": 1.359357, "dry_up": 1.377368, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040804, "annualized_volatility": 0.199437, "from_high_reference": -0.264038, "from_low_reference": 0.072848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.752911, "fair_value_reference": 7.736299, "structural_low": 5.741726, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.009511, "positive_rate": 0.32, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.000627, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.260749, "worst_return": -0.09622, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005527, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017562, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.346479, "worst_return": -0.155267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.039369, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.046192, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.167605, "worst_return": -0.252612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 249550683.6, "trend": 6.903259, "fair_value": 7.792085, "relative_strength": -13.348633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.88376, "energy": 69.651044, "activity_lines": [ 5.956982, 6.085702, 6.353102, 6.583461 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.199538, "volume": 384810907, "typical_volume": 242301422.65, "trend": 6.849911, "fair_value": 7.772527, "relative_strength": -12.565571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.128715, "energy": 63.860787, "activity_lines": [ 6.032309, 6.085659, 6.31464, 6.538059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.41, "volume": 312155899, "typical_volume": 228735955.7, "trend": 6.803244, "fair_value": 7.754261, "relative_strength": -9.437138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.895701, "energy": 40.828343, "activity_lines": [ 6.184488, 6.13098, 6.30132, 6.509678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.16, "volume": 255248816, "typical_volume": 218399911.15, "trend": 6.752911, "fair_value": 7.736299, "relative_strength": -14.727777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.913082, "energy": 27.089372, "activity_lines": [ 6.208782, 6.13012, 6.269428, 6.468178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }