{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b006d13-256c-4fde-bb1d-2984306abea2", "symbol": "300014", "name": "EVE Energy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.174, "architecture_energy": 72.079, "architecture_maturity": 28.954, "architecture_confidence": 89.948, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.74, "rotation_up": 12.0, "upward_expansion": 16.57, "deceleration": 37.81, "rotation_down": 69.41, "downward_expansion": 89.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.126665, 56.162545, 59.760059, 61.689146 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 54.939999, "trend_reference": 63.656494, "distance_from_trend": -0.13693, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 50.338829, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.455106, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.135787, "excess_performance": -0.143186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13693, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079226, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290666, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117005, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.135787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.665929, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 207513155, "relative_activity": 0.752486, "balance": 0.665929, "dry_up": 0.874924, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094518, "annualized_volatility": 0.513279, "from_high_reference": -0.416262, "from_low_reference": 0.274467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.656494, "fair_value_reference": 50.338829, "structural_low": 49.400002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.013418, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.016377, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.417438, "worst_return": -0.191581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.020639, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005346, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.429878, "worst_return": -0.262035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049292, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.078267, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.974679, "worst_return": -0.330478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.513391, "energy": 42.902891, "activity_lines": [ 59.797333, 60.916207, 63.797231, 64.562191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.669998, "volume": 237097344, "typical_volume": 287811791.6, "trend": 65.065042, "fair_value": 50.351617, "relative_strength": -22.064378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.029193, "energy": 74.888609, "activity_lines": [ 56.844666, 58.958545, 62.525632, 63.656946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.959999, "volume": 286135933, "typical_volume": 291902323.75, "trend": 64.586176, "fair_value": 50.344039, "relative_strength": -18.935878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.936724, "energy": 75.641218, "activity_lines": [ 55.055332, 57.744363, 61.521877, 62.940491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.259998, "volume": 234364805, "typical_volume": 284731518.5, "trend": 64.009679, "fair_value": 50.334098, "relative_strength": -17.246501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.817167, "energy": 75.73611, "activity_lines": [ 54.212665, 56.799636, 60.575903, 62.274286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.939999, "volume": 207513155, "typical_volume": 275770082.8, "trend": 63.656494, "fair_value": 50.338829, "relative_strength": -20.455106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.174176, "energy": 72.07879, "activity_lines": [ 54.126665, 56.162545, 59.760059, 61.689146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }