{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b05082b-e1c5-4c16-935f-2354a206dbf1", "symbol": "JUV2", "name": "JUVENTUS FOOTBALL CLUB SPA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.301, "architecture_energy": 22.857, "architecture_maturity": 76.658, "architecture_confidence": 60.61, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.54, "rotation_up": 19.93, "upward_expansion": 7.52, "deceleration": 65.53, "rotation_down": 42.75, "downward_expansion": 66.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.0596, 2.066145, 2.058162, 2.0816 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.046, "trend_reference": 2.1611, "distance_from_trend": -0.05326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.581378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2074, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.883337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136709, "excess_performance": -0.310956, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074621, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2074, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039774, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047336, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136709, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.869636, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9608, "relative_activity": 1.432149, "balance": 0.869636, "dry_up": 0.536944, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041093, "annualized_volatility": 0.203711, "from_high_reference": -0.341699, "from_low_reference": 0.076842 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.1611, "fair_value_reference": 2.581378, "structural_low": 1.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.009881, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.029511, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.272968, "worst_return": -0.15899, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013064, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.123576, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.122449, "worst_return": -0.244868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.069408, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056391, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.376417, "worst_return": -0.237602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.41678, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.192534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.41678, "worst_return": 0.41678, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136546, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.224949, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.102752, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.275269, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00311, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031405, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02961, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064626, "active": false }, { 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2.058871, 2.111206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.042, "volume": 2401, "typical_volume": 8955.45, "trend": 2.210433, "fair_value": 2.597942, "relative_strength": -31.768581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.833199, "energy": 22.40131, "activity_lines": [ 2.0628, 2.065255, 2.056352, 2.098649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.084, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7140.95, "trend": 2.183833, "fair_value": 2.589378, "relative_strength": -29.492288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.838395, "energy": 19.039172, "activity_lines": [ 2.0684, 2.070036, 2.058738, 2.090492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.046, "volume": 9608, "typical_volume": 6708.8, "trend": 2.1611, "fair_value": 2.581378, "relative_strength": -31.883337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.300869, "energy": 22.857068, "activity_lines": [ 2.0596, 2.066145, 2.058162, 2.0816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }