{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b050ee0-ee03-4d8f-8076-5969cc866a84", "symbol": "VER", "name": "Verve Group SE", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.026, "architecture_energy": 43.348, "architecture_maturity": 7.273, "architecture_confidence": 78.481, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.08, "rotation_up": 9.82, "upward_expansion": 13.91, "deceleration": 47.98, "rotation_down": 64.49, "downward_expansion": 77.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.022, 15.372909, 15.961143, 15.914516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.38, "trend_reference": 16.036, "distance_from_trend": -0.040908, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.799469, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.426108, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.632212, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.084626, "excess_performance": 0.023132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040908, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063919, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.426108, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031803, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266322, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067354, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084626, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.799302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1002975, "relative_activity": 0.880412, "balance": 0.799302, "dry_up": 0.564809, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106482, "annualized_volatility": 0.495055, "from_high_reference": -0.471841, "from_low_reference": 0.291352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.036, "fair_value_reference": 26.799469, "structural_low": 11.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045369, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.001414, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.145848, "worst_return": -0.338586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.058427, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.117345, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.127555, "worst_return": -0.244409, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.14803, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.266769, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.14803, "worst_return": -0.14803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.514192, "energy": 36.440181, "activity_lines": [ 15.484666, 16.163818, 16.28, 16.179893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.77, "volume": 381164, "typical_volume": 1262625.6, "trend": 16.323, "fair_value": 27.011442, "relative_strength": -29.940919, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.676014, "energy": 47.764208, "activity_lines": [ 15.197333, 15.844727, 16.15, 16.071183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.69, "volume": 730422, "typical_volume": 1173645.5, "trend": 16.175333, "fair_value": 26.901429, "relative_strength": -29.875128, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.255707, "energy": 49.551049, "activity_lines": [ 14.965333, 15.536182, 16.019905, 15.965828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.38, "volume": 1002975, "typical_volume": 1139211.15, "trend": 16.036, "fair_value": 26.799469, "relative_strength": -26.632212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.026405, "energy": 43.347751, "activity_lines": [ 15.022, 15.372909, 15.961143, 15.914516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }