{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b097349-4227-44de-a91e-cefbc37cf7ff", "symbol": "LALU", "name": "WisdomTree Aluminium 2x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 55.284, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.208, "architecture_energy": 36.311, "architecture_maturity": 19.601, "architecture_confidence": 67.989, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.55, "rotation_up": 24.05, "upward_expansion": 17.22, "deceleration": 62.63, "rotation_down": 50.13, "downward_expansion": 42.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.701067, 2.722873, 2.926617, 2.93952 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.7995, "trend_reference": 2.88615, "distance_from_trend": -0.030023, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.086977, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.341414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.681455, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.157536, "excess_performance": -0.013356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074916, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.341414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.046815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.301582, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157536, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.680865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25600, "relative_activity": 0.244353, "balance": 2.680865, "dry_up": 0.287611, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069188, "annualized_volatility": 0.454014, "from_high_reference": -0.218017, "from_low_reference": 0.613731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.88615, "fair_value_reference": 2.086977, "structural_low": 2.2955, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.051583, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.054911, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.199278, "worst_return": -0.28958, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.086796, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056729, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.335885, "worst_return": -0.324314, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.186414, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.06205, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315658, "worst_return": -0.350072, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027494, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087781, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068461, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074224, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009079, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.270913, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.120903, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.018375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046933, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.6234, "volume": 81379, "typical_volume": 88534.0, "trend": 1.98748, "fair_value": 2.674032, "relative_strength": -31.878966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", 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-24.150597, "energy": 39.206162, "activity_lines": [ 2.823467, 3.049609, 3.101179, 2.996539 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.602, "volume": 46213, "typical_volume": 185169.35, "trend": 2.839283, "fair_value": 2.061905, "relative_strength": -8.659124, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.606014, "energy": 55.081973, "activity_lines": [ 2.697333, 2.950264, 3.059612, 2.982251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.674, "volume": 5212, "typical_volume": 182115.25, "trend": 2.85365, "fair_value": 2.06811, "relative_strength": -5.009355, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.795171, "energy": 66.651717, "activity_lines": [ 2.648333, 2.873409, 3.02416, 2.971587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.6415, "volume": 69770, "typical_volume": 155509.15, "trend": 2.8674, "fair_value": 2.073835, "relative_strength": -6.219665, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.78092, "energy": 67.19297, "activity_lines": [ 2.6279, 2.799436, 2.984793, 2.9579 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.661, "volume": 19946, "typical_volume": 135357.65, "trend": 2.877983, "fair_value": 2.079703, "relative_strength": -6.427852, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.739557, "energy": 58.190043, "activity_lines": [ 2.640867, 2.741036, 2.94806, 2.944584 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.7995, "volume": 25600, "typical_volume": 104766.45, "trend": 2.88615, "fair_value": 2.086977, "relative_strength": -4.681455, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.207603, "energy": 36.310927, "activity_lines": [ 2.701067, 2.722873, 2.926617, 2.93952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }