{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b12d5a4-41d8-4e0b-8012-22eaa87fc435", "symbol": "RKDL", "name": "Ravi Kumar Distilleries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.102, "architecture_energy": 16.908, "architecture_maturity": 34.604, "architecture_confidence": 88.57, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.85, "rotation_up": 24.2, "upward_expansion": 12.76, "deceleration": 42.25, "rotation_down": 32.87, "downward_expansion": 62.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.513333, 19.302727, 19.78219, 19.893892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.469999, "trend_reference": 20.045666, "distance_from_trend": -0.028718, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.859487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216798, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.119557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.060782, "excess_performance": -0.017072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08234, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216798, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130996, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045365, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.060782, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.786512, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52882, "relative_activity": 0.689374, "balance": 0.786512, "dry_up": 0.719015, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073249, "annualized_volatility": 0.294967, "from_high_reference": -0.400554, "from_low_reference": 0.194479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.045666, "fair_value_reference": 24.859487, "structural_low": 16.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.027348, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.037483, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.969349, "worst_return": -0.114507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.069898, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.100177, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.609053, "worst_return": -0.248754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11763, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.115402, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.343643, "worst_return": -0.196244, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.371134, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.085004, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.902564, "worst_return": -0.166739, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120138, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.338916, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097396, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.214317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.08533, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041206, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": 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19.681818, 20.099523, 20.230645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.860001, "volume": 27058, "typical_volume": 98414.35, "trend": 20.536666, "fair_value": 24.658397, "relative_strength": -17.132684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.162071, "energy": 52.708101, "activity_lines": [ 18.887333, 19.42, 19.981904, 20.110903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.9, "volume": 49923, "typical_volume": 98987.45, "trend": 20.403666, "fair_value": 24.705192, "relative_strength": -16.683412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.267227, "energy": 44.075078, "activity_lines": [ 18.908667, 19.217636, 19.872666, 20.005312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.91, "volume": 70442, "typical_volume": 90194.65, "trend": 20.296666, "fair_value": 24.761346, "relative_strength": -9.515169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.714382, "energy": 29.35076, "activity_lines": [ 19.238, 19.259273, 19.860524, 19.973462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.74, "volume": 47376, "typical_volume": 77746.05, "trend": 20.146666, "fair_value": 24.818333, "relative_strength": -11.904172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.373966, "energy": 19.932597, "activity_lines": [ 19.432667, 19.293091, 19.835238, 19.937548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.469999, "volume": 52882, "typical_volume": 76710.2, "trend": 20.045666, "fair_value": 24.859487, "relative_strength": -13.119557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.101632, "energy": 16.907829, "activity_lines": [ 19.513333, 19.302727, 19.78219, 19.893892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }