{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b1574e7-7750-4c64-97e5-ff37ed7d267d", "symbol": "MRT-UN", "name": "Morguard Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.859, "architecture_energy": 37.748, "architecture_maturity": 60.678, "architecture_confidence": 49.851, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.34, "rotation_up": 44.5, "upward_expansion": 71.32, "deceleration": 71.45, "rotation_down": 24.84, "downward_expansion": 9.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.934628, 6.930728, 6.809319, 6.720405 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.0, "trend_reference": 6.611563, "distance_from_trend": 0.058751, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.463451, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.281241, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.475053, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.098739, "excess_performance": -0.021682, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058751, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04869, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.281241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055985, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004751, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.348176, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 551861, "relative_activity": 7.273881, "balance": 1.348176, "dry_up": 3.436068, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034602, "annualized_volatility": 0.118025, "from_high_reference": -0.047462, "from_low_reference": 0.275293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.611563, "fair_value_reference": 5.463451, "structural_low": 5.96461, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.006483, "positive_rate": 0.657895, "directional_follow_through": 0.657895, "median_excess_return": -0.004272, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.109758, "worst_return": -0.123945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012084, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.030204, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.149745, "worst_return": -0.150776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.029968, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.033833, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.209366, "worst_return": -0.149611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.146108, "energy": 52.113459, "activity_lines": [ 6.977864, 6.90522, 6.7665, 6.677921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.81, "volume": 9721, "typical_volume": 50225.25, "trend": 6.585029, "fair_value": 5.448944, "relative_strength": -0.082399, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.478531, "energy": 40.568355, "activity_lines": [ 6.919249, 6.903868, 6.779646, 6.693633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.0, "volume": 551861, "typical_volume": 75868.85, "trend": 6.611563, "fair_value": 5.463451, "relative_strength": -0.475053, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.859006, "energy": 37.748443, "activity_lines": [ 6.934628, 6.930728, 6.809319, 6.720405 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }