{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b186ef8-f95a-420b-9a7d-82e883e89d7d", "symbol": "FXG", "name": "Felix Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.042, "architecture_energy": 45.952, "architecture_maturity": 22.357, "architecture_confidence": 79.275, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.45, "rotation_up": 12.18, "upward_expansion": 6.38, "deceleration": 46.24, "rotation_down": 63.94, "downward_expansion": 79.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.242333, 0.253682, 0.276179, 0.283317 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.245, "trend_reference": 0.298583, "distance_from_trend": -0.179459, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.175365, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397083, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.506871, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.3, "excess_performance": -0.363706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.179459, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120952, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397083, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2424, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16185, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.376443, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3288286, "relative_activity": 0.90774, "balance": 1.376443, "dry_up": 0.639152, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.199372, "annualized_volatility": 0.908813, "from_high_reference": -0.689873, "from_low_reference": 0.53125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.298583, "fair_value_reference": 0.175365, "structural_low": 0.195, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.111491, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.131293, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.30303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.096591, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.091154, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.533333, "worst_return": -0.392405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.623207, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.545325, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.866667, "worst_return": -0.620253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.341463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.37931, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.070762, "energy": 73.730888, "activity_lines": [ 0.252167, 0.279, 0.287786, 0.295172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.26, "volume": 1431874, "typical_volume": 4111671.85, "trend": 0.306417, "fair_value": 0.173571, "relative_strength": -25.047428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.515144, "energy": 65.387964, "activity_lines": [ 0.250667, 0.271227, 0.28506, 0.291941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.23, "volume": 1394825, "typical_volume": 3867856.35, "trend": 0.30225, "fair_value": 0.174404, "relative_strength": -35.466904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.845748, "energy": 63.935815, "activity_lines": [ 0.242833, 0.259636, 0.279762, 0.287011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.245, "volume": 3288286, "typical_volume": 3622496.9, "trend": 0.298583, "fair_value": 0.175365, "relative_strength": -33.506871, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.042177, "energy": 45.951623, "activity_lines": [ 0.242333, 0.253682, 0.276179, 0.283317 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }