{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b2942e8-81dd-48a6-bc6e-6647a53528d7", "symbol": "SPERM", "name": "Spermosens AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.93, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.359, "architecture_energy": 9.099, "architecture_maturity": 19.564, "architecture_confidence": 80.614, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.56, "rotation_up": 17.59, "upward_expansion": 50.13, "deceleration": 91.7, "rotation_down": 30.44, "downward_expansion": 18.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.009773, 0.010116, 0.01007, 0.009819 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.0088, "trend_reference": 0.00924, "distance_from_trend": -0.047619, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.133639, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.934151, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.091324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.294118, "excess_performance": 0.232623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175573, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.934151, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012652, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030913, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.293167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.294118, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.259696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24845198, "relative_activity": 1.08732, "balance": 0.259696, "dry_up": 0.626999, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.188811, "annualized_volatility": 0.742591, "from_high_reference": -0.266667, "from_low_reference": 1.095238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00924, "fair_value_reference": 0.133639, "structural_low": 0.0062, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.059498, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.139744, "worst_return": -0.24072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.108108, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.169833, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.103403, "worst_return": -0.218978, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.055275, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.194764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.189189, "worst_return": -0.299738, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.932723, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -1.076876, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.932723, "worst_return": -0.932723, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-11-25", "end": "2023-07-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.371531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-07-28", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.312827, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.987241, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189189, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.46875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042553, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.295455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": 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0.00944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0104, "volume": 26638283, "typical_volume": 23379610.4, "trend": 0.00868, "fair_value": 0.152982, "relative_strength": 20.968685, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.283664, "energy": 37.234894, "activity_lines": [ 0.010667, 0.010284, 0.010039, 0.00956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0104, "volume": 7901585, "typical_volume": 22050702.0, "trend": 0.00882, "fair_value": 0.148349, "relative_strength": 21.470562, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.645595, "energy": 32.386567, "activity_lines": [ 0.010573, 0.010342, 0.010105, 0.009671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0102, "volume": 15885060, "typical_volume": 22203052.1, "trend": 0.008967, "fair_value": 0.143517, "relative_strength": 16.695641, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.237095, "energy": 23.311749, "activity_lines": [ 0.010427, 0.010364, 0.010144, 0.00976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0102, "volume": 8675723, "typical_volume": 21882197.5, "trend": 0.00912, "fair_value": 0.138807, "relative_strength": 14.563038, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.964707, "energy": 16.480714, "activity_lines": [ 0.010293, 0.010378, 0.010177, 0.00984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0088, "volume": 24845198, "typical_volume": 22849935.8, "trend": 0.00924, "fair_value": 0.133639, "relative_strength": -3.091324, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.359119, "energy": 9.099119, "activity_lines": [ 0.009773, 0.010116, 0.01007, 0.009819 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }