{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b3755e4-7fbd-4344-a92c-957917651700", "symbol": "AWSRIS", "name": "UBS MSCI ACWI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.306, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.068, "architecture_energy": 51.214, "architecture_maturity": 64.186, "architecture_confidence": 70.639, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.36, "rotation_up": 45.12, "upward_expansion": 75.0, "deceleration": 91.47, "rotation_down": 29.48, "downward_expansion": 13.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.104267, 19.102509, 18.8218, 18.381996 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.506001, "trend_reference": 17.898267, "distance_from_trend": 0.089826, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.382585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.268057, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.743853, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137376, "excess_performance": 0.054493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089826, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046022, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.268057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029218, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017439, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.365306, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36137, "relative_activity": 0.389351, "balance": 0.365306, "dry_up": 2.613278, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023772, "annualized_volatility": 0.147502, "from_high_reference": -0.000205, "from_low_reference": 0.251829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.898267, "fair_value_reference": 15.382585, "structural_low": 15.774, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.005562, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.016439, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.093562, "worst_return": -0.08711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032795, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.037107, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.113942, "worst_return": -0.127315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.107142, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.042613, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.125195, "worst_return": -0.01775, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038612, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007652, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028732, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019182, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000598, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037277, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127638, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.258, "volume": 17116, "typical_volume": 62360.8, "trend": 12.115733, "fair_value": 12.180295, "relative_strength": 6.785943, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"energy": 86.917484, "activity_lines": [ 19.234, 19.031418, 18.438838, 18.047101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.926001, "volume": 855621, "typical_volume": 102232.0, "trend": 17.695533, "fair_value": 15.261085, "relative_strength": 0.078175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.363322, "energy": 63.863441, "activity_lines": [ 19.151867, 19.045382, 18.539295, 18.131303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.878, "volume": 21300, "typical_volume": 99933.85, "trend": 17.762466, "fair_value": 15.299034, "relative_strength": -0.046206, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.174404, "energy": 57.387395, "activity_lines": [ 19.053867, 19.041018, 18.627238, 18.207591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.784, "volume": 57132, "typical_volume": 98868.6, "trend": 17.824266, "fair_value": 15.338265, "relative_strength": -0.643783, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.03529, "energy": 43.300804, "activity_lines": [ 18.950667, 19.008618, 18.695714, 18.273497 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.506001, "volume": 36137, "typical_volume": 92813.5, "trend": 17.898267, "fair_value": 15.382585, "relative_strength": 1.743853, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.067659, "energy": 51.213587, "activity_lines": [ 19.104267, 19.102509, 18.8218, 18.381996 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }