{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b3aaa81-896b-44b9-8dc2-873e6af1111b", "symbol": "00639", "name": "Fubon SZSE 100 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 4.334, "architecture_energy": 20.282, "architecture_maturity": 63.402, "architecture_confidence": 74.06, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.82, "rotation_up": 15.29, "upward_expansion": 41.55, "deceleration": 87.84, "rotation_down": 44.7, "downward_expansion": 35.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.11, 17.474728, 17.606524, 17.278108 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.290001, "trend_reference": 16.786, "distance_from_trend": 0.030025, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.575769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.64337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123457, "excess_performance": -0.255855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030025, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059767, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.374866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123457, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708726, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3106952, "relative_activity": 0.76578, "balance": 0.708726, "dry_up": 1.253562, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05143, "annualized_volatility": 0.190635, "from_high_reference": -0.09, "from_low_reference": 0.524691 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.786, "fair_value_reference": 12.575769, "structural_low": 14.91, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.02239, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.007772, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052811, "worst_return": -0.057504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043103, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.073661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183439, "worst_return": -0.149369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.085756, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.088812, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.164919, "worst_return": -0.146481, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004098, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.00898, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088723, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020536, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16566, "active": 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16.053333, "fair_value": 12.285833, "relative_strength": -17.892501, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.571825, "energy": 64.042894, "activity_lines": [ 18.114, 17.836, 17.112333, 16.651764 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 18.690001, "volume": 5333461, "typical_volume": 4517085.9, "trend": 16.181333, "fair_value": 12.331603, "relative_strength": -18.271401, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.674277, "energy": 67.91212, "activity_lines": [ 18.318667, 18.047819, 17.315905, 16.821871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.4, "volume": 1416380, "typical_volume": 4313176.6, "trend": 16.32, "fair_value": 12.371282, "relative_strength": -15.923454, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.263068, "energy": 60.377345, "activity_lines": [ 18.374667, 18.163819, 17.476572, 16.965011 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.819796, "energy": 17.59291, "activity_lines": [ 17.694, 17.942182, 17.652238, 17.194108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.17, "volume": 5179660, "typical_volume": 4220016.15, "trend": 16.669333, "fair_value": 12.513526, "relative_strength": -18.802353, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.733749, "energy": 23.645047, "activity_lines": [ 17.421333, 17.785455, 17.650762, 17.230989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.83, "volume": 5574883, "typical_volume": 4186062.95, "trend": 16.720333, "fair_value": 12.544936, "relative_strength": -19.089762, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.688156, "energy": 19.657401, "activity_lines": [ 17.136667, 17.580364, 17.608762, 17.241355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.290001, "volume": 3106952, "typical_volume": 4057237.05, "trend": 16.786, "fair_value": 12.575769, "relative_strength": -18.64337, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.333532, "energy": 20.281787, "activity_lines": [ 17.11, 17.474728, 17.606524, 17.278108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }