{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b3c56a8-4f5e-4f11-b9b8-73d7e835b4e5", "symbol": "DRFE", "name": "Desjardins RI Emerging Markets Multifactor - Net-Zero Emissions Pathway ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.648, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.112, "architecture_energy": 24.45, "architecture_maturity": 65.495, "architecture_confidence": 85.12, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.92, "rotation_up": 21.85, "upward_expansion": 55.1, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 34.19, "downward_expansion": 18.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.775334, 33.207456, 33.011814, 32.290438 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 33.18, "trend_reference": 31.414914, "distance_from_trend": 0.056186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.228352, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.36947, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.105804, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.104813, "excess_performance": -0.015609, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066624, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.36947, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066943, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104813, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.47877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18300, "relative_activity": 1.140187, "balance": 1.47877, "dry_up": 1.035826, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039994, "annualized_volatility": 0.250355, "from_high_reference": -0.057264, "from_low_reference": 0.289314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.414914, "fair_value_reference": 24.228352, "structural_low": 27.629999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014729, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.020307, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.118171, "worst_return": -0.028565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.02958, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.027644, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.222781, "worst_return": 0.00608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096507, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.026529, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.296426, "worst_return": 0.041689, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"fair_value": 23.872551, "relative_strength": 4.538693, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.048459, "energy": 59.729358, "activity_lines": [ 34.206732, 33.884541, 32.710463, 31.887561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.99, "volume": 12000, "typical_volume": 19725.0, "trend": 30.923851, "fair_value": 23.959235, "relative_strength": -0.791276, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.806617, "energy": 36.425881, "activity_lines": [ 33.453029, 33.598533, 32.746687, 31.966757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.549999, "volume": 22200, "typical_volume": 17040.0, "trend": 31.10524, "fair_value": 24.045073, "relative_strength": 0.702697, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.164315, "energy": 23.920838, "activity_lines": [ 33.004, 33.433658, 32.833181, 32.07167 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.580002, "volume": 14000, "typical_volume": 16305.0, "trend": 31.263852, "fair_value": 24.13404, "relative_strength": 1.24782, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.101529, "energy": 24.48046, "activity_lines": [ 32.741334, 33.264526, 32.903383, 32.166816 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.18, "volume": 18300, "typical_volume": 16050.0, "trend": 31.414914, "fair_value": 24.228352, "relative_strength": -0.105804, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.111939, "energy": 24.450068, "activity_lines": [ 32.775334, 33.207456, 33.011814, 32.290438 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }