{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b40c451-662f-4932-a23f-719d2887cee7", "symbol": "603103", "name": "Hengdian Entertainment Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.761, "architecture_energy": 62.977, "architecture_maturity": 43.722, "architecture_confidence": 95.057, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.22, "rotation_up": 23.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 56.25, "rotation_down": 59.46, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.342667, 14.751636, 17.011809, 18.807075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.13, "trend_reference": 20.789334, "distance_from_trend": -0.272223, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.156537, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063537, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.255901, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.406667, "excess_performance": -0.363463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.272223, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005992, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063537, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.391141, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192559, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.406667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.650994, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26423041, "relative_activity": 0.692451, "balance": 0.650994, "dry_up": 1.008925, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13295, "annualized_volatility": 0.797135, "from_high_reference": -0.625958, "from_low_reference": 0.170147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.789334, "fair_value_reference": 16.156537, "structural_low": 12.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.016801, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.030846, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.271569, "worst_return": -0.206226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.044828, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.021374, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.673821, "worst_return": -0.33378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.017254, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001586, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115132, "worst_return": -0.110284, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-24", "close": 13.03, "volume": 36702286, "typical_volume": 38750649.75, "trend": 20.876, "fair_value": 16.211642, "relative_strength": -28.687218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.031207, "energy": 91.255616, "activity_lines": [ 13.932, 15.499091, 17.884714, 19.586667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.5, "volume": 29663208, "typical_volume": 38225603.1, "trend": 20.837667, "fair_value": 16.182196, "relative_strength": -20.720948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.202658, "energy": 77.229031, "activity_lines": [ 14.042, 15.020364, 17.396952, 19.175312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.13, "volume": 26423041, "typical_volume": 38158702.55, "trend": 20.789334, "fair_value": 16.156537, "relative_strength": -19.255901, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.76131, "energy": 62.976596, "activity_lines": [ 14.342667, 14.751636, 17.011809, 18.807075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }