{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b446587-5607-4a03-8167-67fa5a6ff4dd", "symbol": "2028", "name": "Wei Chih Steel Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.458, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.585, "architecture_energy": 49.573, "architecture_maturity": 29.506, "architecture_confidence": 94.016, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.18, "rotation_up": 24.2, "upward_expansion": 8.56, "deceleration": 46.09, "rotation_down": 54.44, "downward_expansion": 84.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.573333, 15.675104, 16.086223, 16.56491 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.8, "trend_reference": 17.214379, "distance_from_trend": -0.082163, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.657886, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.331802, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.13286, "excess_performance": -0.574232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082163, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01017, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235159, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007568, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.343318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039935, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.13286, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.828847, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 606616, "relative_activity": 0.755509, "balance": 0.828847, "dry_up": 0.708541, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05139, "annualized_volatility": 0.27059, "from_high_reference": -0.269464, "from_low_reference": 0.073741 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.214379, "fair_value_reference": 20.657886, "structural_low": 15.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.011632, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.008313, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.225383, "worst_return": -0.175038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.001038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040737, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.210896, "worst_return": -0.144516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034374, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.078166, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.099537, "worst_return": -0.230858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"down", "direction": -64.640183, "energy": 61.867359, "activity_lines": [ 15.686584, 15.940604, 16.453123, 16.909713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.45, "volume": 563171, "typical_volume": 922104.85, "trend": 17.336428, "fair_value": 20.756279, "relative_strength": -33.792146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.308219, "energy": 64.914893, "activity_lines": [ 15.586584, 15.809576, 16.310377, 16.785023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.4, "volume": 727809, "typical_volume": 852395.75, "trend": 17.275321, "fair_value": 20.709222, "relative_strength": -34.66519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.263609, "energy": 63.570963, "activity_lines": [ 15.493333, 15.695596, 16.170655, 16.660092 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 15.8, "volume": 606616, "typical_volume": 802923.35, "trend": 17.214379, "fair_value": 20.657886, "relative_strength": -34.331802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.58479, "energy": 49.57305, "activity_lines": [ 15.573333, 15.675104, 16.086223, 16.56491 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }