{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b4732ff-16d4-4a2a-a38d-7ab180ca28e9", "symbol": "DLTR", "name": "Dollar Tree Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.891, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 44.345, "architecture_energy": 42.042, "architecture_maturity": 22.985, "architecture_confidence": 66.064, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.22, "rotation_up": 62.78, "upward_expansion": 54.69, "deceleration": 31.94, "rotation_down": 22.9, "downward_expansion": 13.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 126.765333, 124.291091, 116.582714, 114.553183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 130.9, "trend_reference": 115.095667, "distance_from_trend": 0.137315, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 104.598333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251454, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.883425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057094, "excess_performance": -0.130359, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.137315, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00714, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251454, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.370537, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.018834, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.296744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057094, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.450084, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9326165, "relative_activity": 0.562979, "balance": 2.450084, "dry_up": 0.730315, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078929, "annualized_volatility": 0.476409, "from_high_reference": -0.080758, "from_low_reference": 0.545272 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 115.095667, "fair_value_reference": 104.598333, "structural_low": 85.8812, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009524, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008199, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.245818, "worst_return": -0.169796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075796, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.164114, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.213545, "worst_return": -0.093781, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.118746, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.300824, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.494455, "worst_return": -0.281609, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.296033, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.660656, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.421818, "worst_return": -0.465876, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.052325, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.355744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.199668, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027063, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.066788, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.168878, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.029337, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.20452, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130948, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.382786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05522, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 142.81, "volume": 8033724, "typical_volume": 9740153.9, "trend": 146.325667, "fair_value": 129.465064, "relative_strength": -16.374505, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", 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"Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.623112, "energy": 60.064606, "activity_lines": [ 124.058667, 119.037091, 111.767381, 112.42572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.45, "volume": 14044276, "typical_volume": 17508678.65, "trend": 115.161333, "fair_value": 104.850705, "relative_strength": -1.411826, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.0367, "energy": 46.729085, "activity_lines": [ 123.514, 120.314909, 112.872286, 112.759398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 127.21, "volume": 9552391, "typical_volume": 17133079.3, "trend": 115.145, "fair_value": 104.703269, "relative_strength": 3.80914, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.700981, "energy": 43.285363, "activity_lines": [ 124.636, 122.260545, 114.59881, 113.536731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 130.9, "volume": 9326165, "typical_volume": 16565749.45, "trend": 115.095667, "fair_value": 104.598333, "relative_strength": 1.883425, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 44.345438, "energy": 42.04188, "activity_lines": [ 126.765333, 124.291091, 116.582714, 114.553183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }