{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b47aee1-1941-418c-b387-e5c31096ef36", "symbol": "BMIN3", "name": "Banco Mercantil de Investimentos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.802, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.399, "architecture_energy": 64.879, "architecture_maturity": 80.566, "architecture_confidence": 61.939, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.7, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 45.61, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 21.49, 21.623571, 21.738934 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21.49, "trend_reference": 21.919177, "distance_from_trend": -0.01958, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.166048, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065653, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.00183, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042987, "excess_performance": 0.014061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01958, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014467, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065653, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040961, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070018, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068691, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042987, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": null, "balance": null, "dry_up": null, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001826, "annualized_volatility": 0.077035, "from_high_reference": -0.042987, "from_low_reference": 0.000533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.919177, "fair_value_reference": 20.166048, "structural_low": 21.478544, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.37931, "directional_follow_through": 0.344828, "median_excess_return": 0.003903, "regime_survival": 0.689655, "best_return": 0.26802, "worst_return": -0.114607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.0045, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.024956, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.322188, "worst_return": -0.086266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017744, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.009501, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.398141, "worst_return": -0.101124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-05-29", "close": 22.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.0, "trend": 22.240939, "fair_value": 19.993939, "relative_strength": -8.285988, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.355111, "energy": 35.319179, "activity_lines": [ 22.0, 22.0, 22.041212, 22.129997 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 21.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.0, "trend": 22.208763, "fair_value": 20.017267, "relative_strength": -7.73917, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.603391, "energy": 96.17484, "activity_lines": [ 21.83, 21.907273, 21.979901, 22.081549 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 21.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.0, "trend": 22.176587, "fair_value": 20.014203, "relative_strength": -8.664823, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.656195, "energy": 98.129397, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.33333, "energy": 88.566658, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 21.629091, 21.780623, 21.908517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.0, "trend": 22.047882, "fair_value": 20.04904, "relative_strength": -11.239656, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.333252, "energy": 88.104296, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 21.582727, 21.742295, 21.870449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10.0, "trend": 22.015706, "fair_value": 20.078292, "relative_strength": -8.82514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.998861, "energy": 68.097229, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 21.545636, 21.708563, 21.834456 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 21.98353, "fair_value": 20.107544, "relative_strength": -8.7016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.657374, "energy": 67.610728, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 21.517818, 21.679429, 21.80054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 21.951353, "fair_value": 20.136796, "relative_strength": -10.390083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.292386, "energy": 67.067054, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 21.499273, 21.650286, 21.768699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.49, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 21.919177, "fair_value": 20.166048, "relative_strength": -7.00183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.398678, "energy": 64.878581, "activity_lines": [ 21.49, 21.49, 21.623571, 21.738934 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }