{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b487193-c320-42ab-9852-e2047e162b39", "symbol": "WSBF", "name": "Waterstone Financial Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.282, "architecture_energy": 54.332, "architecture_maturity": 46.349, "architecture_confidence": 84.932, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.69, "rotation_up": 62.61, "upward_expansion": 80.83, "deceleration": 57.36, "rotation_down": 18.59, "downward_expansion": 7.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.373333, 20.135027, 19.523959, 19.102302 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.84, "trend_reference": 18.598022, "distance_from_trend": 0.120549, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.850345, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.504656, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.695345, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165267, "excess_performance": -0.022187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120549, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076369, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.504656, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094001, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066953, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059774, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165267, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.241186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 249245, "relative_activity": 0.732987, "balance": 2.241186, "dry_up": 0.927096, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044386, "annualized_volatility": 0.167428, "from_high_reference": -0.013958, "from_low_reference": 0.578241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.598022, "fair_value_reference": 13.850345, "structural_low": 16.695329, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.004868, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.006191, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.096912, "worst_return": -0.172047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065636, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.018538, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.201105, "worst_return": -0.060828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077248, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.045297, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.333758, "worst_return": -0.007458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.69, "volume": 344133, "typical_volume": 347644.85, "trend": 18.186829, "fair_value": 13.688818, "relative_strength": 6.176247, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.973144, "energy": 62.910528, "activity_lines": [ 19.877323, 19.554567, 19.031301, 18.686001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.06, "volume": 378368, "typical_volume": 353289.65, "trend": 18.317659, "fair_value": 13.737348, "relative_strength": 9.479543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.144977, "energy": 48.882526, "activity_lines": [ 19.957591, 19.711629, 19.169904, 18.80685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.52, "volume": 289253, "typical_volume": 351223.8, "trend": 18.462839, "fair_value": 13.791263, "relative_strength": 10.856559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.888299, "energy": 49.7556, "activity_lines": [ 20.123373, 19.914147, 19.339172, 18.948937 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.84, "volume": 249245, "typical_volume": 340040.0, "trend": 18.598022, "fair_value": 13.850345, "relative_strength": 6.695345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.281972, "energy": 54.332275, "activity_lines": [ 20.373333, 20.135027, 19.523959, 19.102302 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }