{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b4916c7-23cd-4958-9c8a-53cdc2f2f9c4", "symbol": "NXD", "name": "NextEd Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.783, "architecture_energy": 73.952, "architecture_maturity": 80.851, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 28.73, "upward_expansion": 13.55, "deceleration": 46.63, "rotation_down": 62.1, "downward_expansion": 89.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.080067, 0.084827, 0.102621, 0.121765 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.073, "trend_reference": 0.152117, "distance_from_trend": -0.520105, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.287218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.745838, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -64.781534, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.719231, "excess_performance": -0.782936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.520105, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.745838, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121968, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.647815, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360931, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.719231, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.044225, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2585652, "relative_activity": 3.491739, "balance": 0.044225, "dry_up": 1.356358, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187039, "annualized_volatility": 0.847076, "from_high_reference": -0.832184, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.152117, "fair_value_reference": 0.287218, "structural_low": 0.073, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.03456, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028658, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.316901, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.06483, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.542857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.110766, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.132893, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.038462, "worst_return": -0.790476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.352941, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", 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-69.599591, "energy": 82.505596, "activity_lines": [ 0.090267, 0.100391, 0.122531, 0.144777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.088, "volume": 597644, "typical_volume": 621048.1, "trend": 0.17425, "fair_value": 0.310096, "relative_strength": -57.117036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.737829, "energy": 80.02691, "activity_lines": [ 0.0893, 0.096309, 0.117438, 0.138832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.081, "volume": 761747, "typical_volume": 636601.9, "trend": 0.167283, "fair_value": 0.302026, "relative_strength": -59.84559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.436588, "energy": 68.997395, "activity_lines": [ 0.0862, 0.092082, 0.112307, 0.132816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.082, "volume": 72519, "typical_volume": 635046.1, "trend": 0.159017, "fair_value": 0.294442, "relative_strength": -59.728162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.227065, "energy": 70.677916, "activity_lines": [ 0.084633, 0.088927, 0.107695, 0.127314 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.073, "volume": 2585652, "typical_volume": 740505.5, "trend": 0.152117, "fair_value": 0.287218, "relative_strength": -64.781534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.783335, "energy": 73.952, "activity_lines": [ 0.080067, 0.084827, 0.102621, 0.121765 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }