{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b4c1004-3fc0-44ca-8f69-496fa2d4535b", "symbol": "KSM-F53", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) DAX 30", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.118, "architecture_energy": 63.494, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.076, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.88, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.32, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.812, 74.655636, 1916.916952, 3306.286151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 77.49, "trend_reference": 4953.938333, "distance_from_trend": -0.984358, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6527.680449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.988129, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.899738, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989974, "excess_performance": -1.018874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984358, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.341261, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.988129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.025998, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.670531, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.295403, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38339, "relative_activity": 0.635087, "balance": 1.295403, "dry_up": 1.016481, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.490565, "annualized_volatility": 6.349737, "from_high_reference": -0.990673, "from_low_reference": 0.100554 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4953.938333, "fair_value_reference": 6527.680449, "structural_low": 70.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.007158, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.031902, "regime_survival": 0.913043, "best_return": 0.122365, "worst_return": -0.989696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08217, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.111931, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.276211, "worst_return": -0.99012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.088813, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.170782, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.464276, "worst_return": -0.206215, "sufficient": 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065576, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.162493, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027269, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003376, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": 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"typical_volume": 73016.3, "trend": 5475.985, "fair_value": 6599.138141, "relative_strength": -99.033203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.959016, "energy": 68.000369, "activity_lines": [ 73.6, 451.477636, 2689.132238, 3986.161871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.11, "volume": 92510, "typical_volume": 75485.4, "trend": 5216.688667, "fair_value": 6563.843974, "relative_strength": -98.934154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.547045, "energy": 67.342465, "activity_lines": [ 74.814667, 199.524, 2285.944857, 3637.847355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 77.49, "volume": 38339, "typical_volume": 60368.1, "trend": 4953.938333, "fair_value": 6527.680449, "relative_strength": -98.899738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.118405, "energy": 63.494183, "activity_lines": [ 75.812, 74.655636, 1916.916952, 3306.286151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }