{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b4e79f0-0bf1-48f2-b4a5-3ea58ec3aa24", "symbol": "603700", "name": "Ningbo Water Meter (Group) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.876, "architecture_energy": 35.032, "architecture_maturity": 54.98, "architecture_confidence": 77.746, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.49, "rotation_up": 25.13, "upward_expansion": 4.47, "deceleration": 59.44, "rotation_down": 40.19, "downward_expansion": 73.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.083333, 11.103847, 11.360124, 11.864328 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.27, "trend_reference": 12.550756, "distance_from_trend": -0.102046, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.655137, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.033044, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.681266, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.204658, "excess_performance": -0.161454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102046, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047873, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.033044, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096813, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003705, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204658, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.805161, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28745202, "relative_activity": 1.610167, "balance": 0.805161, "dry_up": 1.591892, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084553, "annualized_volatility": 0.282768, "from_high_reference": -0.248667, "from_low_reference": 0.127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.550756, "fair_value_reference": 11.655137, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.026802, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.015986, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.144938, "worst_return": -0.17587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.00216, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064388, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.140998, "worst_return": -0.188554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.076823, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.106665, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.104122, "worst_return": -0.178029, "sufficient": true }, { 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12.397131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.52, "volume": 18601184, "typical_volume": 15386476.1, "trend": 12.826089, "fair_value": 11.727139, "relative_strength": -10.295888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.007867, "energy": 39.038847, "activity_lines": [ 11.278218, 11.243858, 11.788984, 12.309728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.93, "volume": 28089993, "typical_volume": 16042051.25, "trend": 12.772422, "fair_value": 11.707879, "relative_strength": -9.347953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.71659, "energy": 34.628619, "activity_lines": [ 11.234278, 11.160166, 11.649495, 12.187399 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.76, "volume": 35376898, "typical_volume": 16840952.9, "trend": 12.697089, "fair_value": 11.688934, "relative_strength": -11.575954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.605557, "energy": 36.00037, "activity_lines": [ 11.1, 11.074113, 11.511387, 12.057566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.06, "volume": 21463699, "typical_volume": 17137788.15, "trend": 12.628089, "fair_value": 11.670691, "relative_strength": -9.217935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.22503, "energy": 36.854349, "activity_lines": [ 11.045333, 11.063262, 11.418041, 11.951947 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.27, "volume": 28745202, "typical_volume": 17852306.75, "trend": 12.550756, "fair_value": 11.655137, "relative_strength": -9.681266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.876325, "energy": 35.032058, "activity_lines": [ 11.083333, 11.103847, 11.360124, 11.864328 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }