{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b4e9dec-70cf-4b74-893f-a7e5e5534e3d", "symbol": "002227", "name": "Shenzhen Auto Electric Power Plant Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.351, "architecture_energy": 67.178, "architecture_maturity": 87.263, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 21.61, "upward_expansion": 13.24, "deceleration": 47.09, "rotation_down": 59.57, "downward_expansion": 84.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.056667, 6.283636, 7.028381, 7.662108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.21, "trend_reference": 8.687, "distance_from_trend": -0.285139, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.779359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.423899, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.537426, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.422862, "excess_performance": -0.430262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.285139, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200288, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.423899, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.445374, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024315, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.422862, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.441492, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13491648, "relative_activity": 0.596448, "balance": 0.441492, "dry_up": 0.681806, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11074, "annualized_volatility": 0.435146, "from_high_reference": -0.620416, "from_low_reference": 0.215264 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.687, "fair_value_reference": 10.779359, "structural_low": 5.11, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.001615, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00373, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.179698, "worst_return": -0.219512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.022654, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.042397, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.274769, "worst_return": -0.298701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.071553, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.035436, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.701613, "worst_return": -0.441558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135632, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.020496, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085627, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018653, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.219085, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": 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8.490452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.04, "volume": 15616900, "typical_volume": 25947519.0, "trend": 9.306667, "fair_value": 10.935321, "relative_strength": -46.815924, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.227937, "energy": 86.909993, "activity_lines": [ 6.413333, 6.882364, 7.597524, 8.265118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.62, "volume": 21250678, "typical_volume": 25372847.7, "trend": 9.088667, "fair_value": 10.880385, "relative_strength": -49.760099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.438973, "energy": 80.809598, "activity_lines": [ 6.12, 6.562364, 7.351667, 8.027269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.1, "volume": 11330602, "typical_volume": 23247682.65, "trend": 8.881333, "fair_value": 10.825769, "relative_strength": -43.668619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.131505, "energy": 73.184012, "activity_lines": [ 6.06, 6.390182, 7.176048, 7.834452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.21, "volume": 13491648, "typical_volume": 22620000.5, "trend": 8.687, "fair_value": 10.779359, "relative_strength": -44.537426, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.350569, "energy": 67.177704, "activity_lines": [ 6.056667, 6.283636, 7.028381, 7.662108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }