{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b515df3-f6c7-42e1-b0b6-9ae4a5ea7083", "symbol": "000973", "name": "FSPG Hi-Tech CO., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.143, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.638, "architecture_energy": 74.106, "architecture_maturity": 15.824, "architecture_confidence": 90.583, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.95, "rotation_up": 14.63, "upward_expansion": 17.84, "deceleration": 37.63, "rotation_down": 66.62, "downward_expansion": 91.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.105333, 12.661791, 14.186727, 14.817771 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.44, "trend_reference": 15.038669, "distance_from_trend": -0.172799, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.620245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.632493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.116005, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006472, "excess_performance": -0.000927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.172799, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020559, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.632493, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.272765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.570268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.56528, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 154364346, "relative_activity": 0.587251, "balance": 0.56528, "dry_up": 0.753916, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13254, "annualized_volatility": 0.69428, "from_high_reference": -0.440437, "from_low_reference": 0.907975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.038669, "fair_value_reference": 7.620245, "structural_low": 10.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.040569, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.010128, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.176152, "worst_return": -0.092857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.069514, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.116953, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.824023, "worst_return": -0.093555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.130839, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.18083, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.921788, "worst_return": -0.072796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-5.709455, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.970128, "energy": 67.198236, "activity_lines": [ 12.696667, 13.563058, 15.274443, 15.398567 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.97, "volume": 229008137, "typical_volume": 287330773.1, "trend": 15.185669, "fair_value": 7.520562, "relative_strength": -3.023004, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.672087, "energy": 66.391247, "activity_lines": [ 12.248667, 13.148155, 14.881918, 15.191298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.07, "volume": 188298567, "typical_volume": 274100579.1, "trend": 15.114002, "fair_value": 7.569312, "relative_strength": -1.393811, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.997658, "energy": 78.566452, "activity_lines": [ 12.056667, 12.842088, 14.50468, 14.990287 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.44, "volume": 154364346, "typical_volume": 262859325.2, "trend": 15.038669, "fair_value": 7.620245, "relative_strength": -4.116005, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.638079, "energy": 74.105673, "activity_lines": [ 12.105333, 12.661791, 14.186727, 14.817771 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }