{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b51bfd7-1c2e-4481-a5ed-394127659f0d", "symbol": "301305", "name": "Shenzhen Lions King Hi-Tech Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.742, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.531, "architecture_energy": 75.206, "architecture_maturity": 18.405, "architecture_confidence": 75.101, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.07, "rotation_up": 8.14, "upward_expansion": 16.74, "deceleration": 37.14, "rotation_down": 75.26, "downward_expansion": 90.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.945333, 24.0962, 25.645177, 25.916456 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.709999, "trend_reference": 26.10525, "distance_from_trend": -0.13006, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.555318, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161321, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.706812, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.137813, "excess_performance": -0.145213, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.13006, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049122, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161321, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.137813, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.464227, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31155222, "relative_activity": 1.143746, "balance": 1.464227, "dry_up": 1.148496, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134253, "annualized_volatility": 0.589794, "from_high_reference": -0.289356, "from_low_reference": 0.231131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.10525, "fair_value_reference": 19.555318, "structural_low": 18.879999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048103, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111748, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109345, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 20.77, "volume": 33191468, "typical_volume": 27924892.2, "trend": 26.116583, "fair_value": 19.541684, "relative_strength": -12.457597, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.993702, "energy": 44.17446, "activity_lines": [ 23.231325, 25.732213, 26.414677, 26.409606 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.860001, "volume": 28940147, "typical_volume": 27058081.65, "trend": 26.09725, "fair_value": 19.546495, "relative_strength": -6.478528, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.085533, "energy": 63.141329, "activity_lines": [ 22.172, 24.814478, 25.975403, 26.134988 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.709999, "volume": 31155222, "typical_volume": 27239643.75, "trend": 26.10525, "fair_value": 19.555318, "relative_strength": -7.706812, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.530773, "energy": 75.206198, "activity_lines": [ 21.945333, 24.0962, 25.645177, 25.916456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }