{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b55acc7-67af-4656-b04b-915f7c58a182", "symbol": "ALCUR", "name": "Arcure S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.294, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.519, "architecture_energy": 35.036, "architecture_maturity": 9.38, "architecture_confidence": 89.199, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.47, "rotation_up": 15.57, "upward_expansion": 3.54, "deceleration": 50.23, "rotation_down": 56.22, "downward_expansion": 76.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.553333, 2.588909, 2.686929, 2.719226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.69, "trend_reference": 2.763167, "distance_from_trend": -0.026479, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.955429, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.319922, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.026697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.052817, "excess_performance": -0.106128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025968, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.319922, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008606, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170267, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05519, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052817, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.788828, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37034, "relative_activity": 1.044047, "balance": 0.788828, "dry_up": 1.251959, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094939, "annualized_volatility": 0.389581, "from_high_reference": -0.436059, "from_low_reference": 0.222727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.763167, "fair_value_reference": 3.955429, "structural_low": 2.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.003842, "positive_rate": 0.527778, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.011112, "regime_survival": 0.805556, "best_return": 0.26, "worst_return": -0.176245, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.037934, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.058633, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.807229, "worst_return": -0.167715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.103837, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.150148, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.017937, "worst_return": -0.202817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.121006, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.172404, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.90583, "worst_return": -0.198646, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01897, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09018, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.397938, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059072, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.121896, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149378, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", 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"typical_volume": 34770.65, "trend": 2.781167, "fair_value": 3.952609, "relative_strength": -23.234971, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.594638, "energy": 61.090877, "activity_lines": [ 2.562, 2.642364, 2.723262, 2.748774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.41, "volume": 53990, "typical_volume": 35924.85, "trend": 2.776833, "fair_value": 3.952994, "relative_strength": -24.634803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.19266, "energy": 61.355478, "activity_lines": [ 2.506667, 2.586, 2.691071, 2.724828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.69, "volume": 37034, "typical_volume": 35471.6, "trend": 2.763167, "fair_value": 3.955429, "relative_strength": -17.026697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.518793, "energy": 35.035528, "activity_lines": [ 2.553333, 2.588909, 2.686929, 2.719226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }