{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b581975-9369-481e-8b1c-0f5cb17bc9cd", "symbol": "UIW3", "name": "UBS MSCI Europe Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.934, "architecture_energy": 93.25, "architecture_maturity": 29.817, "architecture_confidence": 79.368, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 77.11, "upward_expansion": 96.71, "deceleration": 42.33, "rotation_down": 16.63, "downward_expansion": 21.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.254267, 18.059527, 17.675714, 17.366684 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.756001, "trend_reference": 17.0864, "distance_from_trend": 0.097715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.611747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201403, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.832211, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115632, "excess_performance": 0.050992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097715, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097606, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.038322, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018338, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115632, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.728205, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64, "relative_activity": 0.093111, "balance": 0.728205, "dry_up": 0.677239, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017627, "annualized_volatility": 0.158705, "from_high_reference": -0.002553, "from_low_reference": 0.231679 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.0864, "fair_value_reference": 15.611747, "structural_low": 15.228, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.009174, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.006337, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.076837, "worst_return": -0.103556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.031434, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.023041, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.084194, "worst_return": -0.037965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.050653, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.056223, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.121172, "worst_return": -0.066309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.860267, 17.701418, 17.312924, 17.111944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.944, "volume": 237, "typical_volume": 697.65, "trend": 16.9764, "fair_value": 15.543426, "relative_strength": 4.522816, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.248196, "energy": 83.939028, "activity_lines": [ 17.898133, 17.777054, 17.408943, 17.177424 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.181999, "volume": 772, "typical_volume": 684.15, "trend": 17.028067, "fair_value": 15.575798, "relative_strength": 3.556564, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.030411, "energy": 79.840729, "activity_lines": [ 17.996133, 17.874109, 17.519838, 17.255204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.756001, "volume": 64, "typical_volume": 687.35, "trend": 17.0864, "fair_value": 15.611747, "relative_strength": 3.832211, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.934138, "energy": 93.250301, "activity_lines": [ 18.254267, 18.059527, 17.675714, 17.366684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }