{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b5a6a55-f509-433b-923a-0f68386756d6", "symbol": "002544", "name": "Cetc Potevio Science&Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.455, "architecture_energy": 66.717, "architecture_maturity": 51.786, "architecture_confidence": 88.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 18.86, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 54.28, "rotation_down": 66.52, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.076667, 16.949723, 19.465204, 21.617141 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.82, "trend_reference": 24.90586, "distance_from_trend": -0.324657, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.680696, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.2584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.65645, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.464843, "excess_performance": -0.472242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.324657, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.137907, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.2584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.45106, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376565, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207616, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.464843, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.437686, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67080868, "relative_activity": 1.190923, "balance": 0.437686, "dry_up": 1.361605, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120431, "annualized_volatility": 0.437731, "from_high_reference": -0.6, "from_low_reference": 0.159201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.90586, "fair_value_reference": 22.680696, "structural_low": 14.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.036428, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.034543, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.523171, "worst_return": -0.214992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.332353, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.045031, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.368076, "worst_return": -0.189672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.03889, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029838, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.249412, "worst_return": -0.121543, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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22.750196, "relative_strength": -43.774177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.911025, "energy": 74.364884, "activity_lines": [ 16.464733, 17.839934, 20.621068, 22.8445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.73, "volume": 56667353, "typical_volume": 56755060.15, "trend": 25.49486, "fair_value": 22.708273, "relative_strength": -39.112202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.36292, "energy": 68.616432, "activity_lines": [ 16.014013, 17.220738, 19.962231, 22.17681 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.82, "volume": 67080868, "typical_volume": 56326776.45, "trend": 24.90586, "fair_value": 22.680696, "relative_strength": -37.65645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.454545, "energy": 66.717258, "activity_lines": [ 16.076667, 16.949723, 19.465204, 21.617141 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }