{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b605146-af2c-481f-9533-7e3fe4480598", "symbol": "UKSR", "name": "UBS MSCI United Kingdom IMI Socially Responsible UCITS ETF GBP dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.935, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.534, "architecture_energy": 86.077, "architecture_maturity": 10.17, "architecture_confidence": 71.107, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.47, "rotation_up": 83.81, "upward_expansion": 97.09, "deceleration": 39.16, "rotation_down": 9.62, "downward_expansion": 19.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 2036.27, 2006.321818, 1965.112375, 1944.470613 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 2081.25, "trend_reference": 1932.234158, "distance_from_trend": 0.077121, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1719.591117, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.210317, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.38057, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057765, "excess_performance": 0.006529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077121, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012309, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.210317, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091146, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003806, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058046, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057765, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.843691, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143669, "relative_activity": 1.000556, "balance": 1.843691, "dry_up": 0.778297, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025347, "annualized_volatility": 0.173833, "from_high_reference": -0.002994, "from_low_reference": 0.198324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1932.234158, "fair_value_reference": 1719.591117, "structural_low": 1736.800049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.005526, "positive_rate": 0.53125, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.009921, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.086687, "worst_return": -0.105946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.002648, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.021609, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.073392, "worst_return": -0.052088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.037797, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.017693, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.090856, "worst_return": -0.116543, "sufficient": true }, { 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1942.654541, 1918.173323, 1916.864047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2001.0, "volume": 69787, "typical_volume": 180921.8, "trend": 1922.692007, "fair_value": 1709.708824, "relative_strength": -1.145496, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.707001, "energy": 62.811255, "activity_lines": [ 1981.04, 1956.607269, 1927.460943, 1922.053818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2014.0, "volume": 123651, "typical_volume": 165195.45, "trend": 1925.492113, "fair_value": 1712.598097, "relative_strength": -1.589652, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.622737, "energy": 76.343847, "activity_lines": [ 1996.226667, 1970.796361, 1938.077134, 1927.944657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2029.0, "volume": 109913, "typical_volume": 153139.6, "trend": 1928.605569, "fair_value": 1715.825611, "relative_strength": -1.930922, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.848858, "energy": 75.603607, "activity_lines": [ 2010.093333, 1984.858181, 1949.51904, 1934.622585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2081.25, "volume": 143669, "typical_volume": 143589.2, "trend": 1932.234158, "fair_value": 1719.591117, "relative_strength": 0.38057, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.533834, "energy": 86.076867, "activity_lines": [ 2036.27, 2006.321818, 1965.112375, 1944.470613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }