{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b60cfd8-437c-43a8-b84b-7a291c1c9dca", "symbol": "JNO", "name": "Juno Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.89, "architecture_energy": 46.306, "architecture_maturity": 18.279, "architecture_confidence": 87.154, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.95, "rotation_up": 15.78, "upward_expansion": 7.72, "deceleration": 44.3, "rotation_down": 53.32, "downward_expansion": 76.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0258, 0.026327, 0.026905, 0.027751 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.026, "trend_reference": 0.029833, "distance_from_trend": -0.128492, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.041956, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.380305, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.353681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.315789, "excess_performance": -0.379495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057895, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.380305, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009022, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173537, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124194, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315789, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.022319, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82365, "relative_activity": 0.216661, "balance": 8.022319, "dry_up": 0.063331, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088757, "annualized_volatility": 0.635764, "from_high_reference": -0.509434, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.029833, "fair_value_reference": 0.041956, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.035099, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.003485, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.242424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.009176, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02521, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.353235, "worst_return": -0.462687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.068031, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.626866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.1197, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.144237, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.61194, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067416, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105882, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.152778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.58209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.181818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.078823, "volume": 756121, "typical_volume": 210705.75, "trend": 0.082206, "fair_value": 0.118897, "relative_strength": -12.628692, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.656462, 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.79632, "energy": 63.948283, "activity_lines": [ 0.026133, 0.027182, 0.0273, 0.028602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.026, "volume": 2746, "typical_volume": 416660.55, "trend": 0.030433, "fair_value": 0.042614, "relative_strength": -12.623406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.22462, "energy": 56.423453, "activity_lines": [ 0.025933, 0.026855, 0.027133, 0.028303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 2990, "typical_volume": 404470.85, "trend": 0.030133, "fair_value": 0.042314, "relative_strength": -14.618858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.412569, "energy": 58.474746, "activity_lines": [ 0.025867, 0.026564, 0.027005, 0.028017 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.026, "volume": 82365, "typical_volume": 380156.3, "trend": 0.029833, "fair_value": 0.041956, "relative_strength": -17.353681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.890024, "energy": 46.306094, "activity_lines": [ 0.0258, 0.026327, 0.026905, 0.027751 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }