{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b63ed55-2a68-45a3-b94a-c35778e54e28", "symbol": "V3PL", "name": "Vanguard ESG Developed Asia Pacific All Cap UCITS ETF USD Income", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.976, "architecture_energy": 28.292, "architecture_maturity": 64.482, "architecture_confidence": 86.669, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.23, "rotation_up": 21.68, "upward_expansion": 56.03, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 36.21, "downward_expansion": 19.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.546, 8.706819, 8.626555, 8.398343 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.65, "trend_reference": 8.095302, "distance_from_trend": 0.068521, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.259923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.381806, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.081937, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.161586, "excess_performance": -0.009305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068521, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.381806, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031188, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000819, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098775, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.161586, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.253236, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 118030, "relative_activity": 5.209784, "balance": 2.253236, "dry_up": 3.484471, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041456, "annualized_volatility": 0.257831, "from_high_reference": -0.080667, "from_low_reference": 0.39043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.095302, "fair_value_reference": 6.259923, "structural_low": 7.1, "invalidation": "A sustained 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0.029736, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.118771, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029736, "worst_return": 0.029736, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00853, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065646, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010272, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"direction": 68.514983, "energy": 81.686142, "activity_lines": [ 9.062004, 8.879683, 8.458315, 8.184987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.96, "volume": 16060, "typical_volume": 10120.35, "trend": 7.875037, "fair_value": 6.174666, "relative_strength": 6.497008, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.40178, "energy": 71.553722, "activity_lines": [ 9.059208, 8.927364, 8.535446, 8.259984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.415, "volume": 50104, "typical_volume": 12296.85, "trend": 7.932803, "fair_value": 6.195453, "relative_strength": 1.243438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.246167, "energy": 47.835286, "activity_lines": [ 8.853867, 8.856469, 8.555436, 8.294821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.554, "volume": 105922, "typical_volume": 16476.7, "trend": 7.994007, "fair_value": 6.216817, "relative_strength": 2.883041, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.199052, "energy": 31.618143, "activity_lines": [ 8.706733, 8.81114, 8.586898, 8.334898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.372, "volume": 41713, "typical_volume": 18008.1, "trend": 8.044591, "fair_value": 6.237479, "relative_strength": -0.116252, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.726118, "energy": 27.698216, "activity_lines": [ 8.554067, 8.732944, 8.595819, 8.359284 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.65, "volume": 118030, "typical_volume": 22655.45, "trend": 8.095302, "fair_value": 6.259923, "relative_strength": 0.081937, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.975907, "energy": 28.291874, "activity_lines": [ 8.546, 8.706819, 8.626555, 8.398343 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }