{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b6d270d-a992-4223-910c-be376c93a2a2", "symbol": "ALTOU", "name": "TOUAX", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 49.976, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.147, "architecture_energy": 11.189, "architecture_maturity": 20.337, "architecture_confidence": 61.784, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.27, "rotation_up": 22.36, "upward_expansion": 21.53, "deceleration": 56.21, "rotation_down": 28.59, "downward_expansion": 50.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.013333, 4.031744, 3.968842, 4.005372 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.99, "trend_reference": 4.110436, "distance_from_trend": -0.0293, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.418065, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09689, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.263181, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105381, "excess_performance": -0.158693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0293, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008225, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09689, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096586, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.05025, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20486, "relative_activity": 1.516908, "balance": 1.05025, "dry_up": 0.614472, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046164, "annualized_volatility": 0.292296, "from_high_reference": -0.330537, "from_low_reference": 0.132221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.110436, "fair_value_reference": 4.418065, "structural_low": 3.524047, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.02461, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.050079, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.124672, "worst_return": -0.206681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.122538, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.120108, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.239408, "worst_return": -0.224445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.107692, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.154835, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.118736, "worst_return": -0.293814, 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.180049, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.11592, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097166, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103139, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177215, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.480106, "energy": 16.637082, "activity_lines": [ 4.064254, 4.016086, 3.952601, 4.030338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.96, "volume": 8392, "typical_volume": 14665.15, "trend": 4.134436, "fair_value": 4.449107, "relative_strength": -11.933455, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.538256, "energy": 11.539791, "activity_lines": [ 4.030063, 4.017641, 3.951872, 4.018933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.06, "volume": 2770, "typical_volume": 14571.7, "trend": 4.12577, "fair_value": 4.43357, "relative_strength": -10.436165, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.953164, "energy": 9.09966, "activity_lines": [ 4.033333, 4.034597, 3.962857, 4.014131 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.99, "volume": 20486, "typical_volume": 13505.1, "trend": 4.110436, "fair_value": 4.418065, "relative_strength": -13.263181, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.146984, "energy": 11.188664, "activity_lines": [ 4.013333, 4.031744, 3.968842, 4.005372 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }