{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b71406c-8e88-41bc-844d-6cba0b0ae73a", "symbol": "229720", "name": "KODEX KTOP 30", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.419, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -8.197, "architecture_energy": 27.807, "architecture_maturity": 56.788, "architecture_confidence": 93.035, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.62, "rotation_up": 14.1, "upward_expansion": 43.08, "deceleration": 87.29, "rotation_down": 52.38, "downward_expansion": 39.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 35496.61224, 38301.680753, 39561.372889, 37957.288206 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34330.0, "trend_reference": 35406.31875, "distance_from_trend": -0.030399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20547.799135, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.670739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.626478, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.259172, "excess_performance": 0.029343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030399, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.2069, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.670739, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453204, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006265, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051586, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.259172, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.245747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18908, "relative_activity": 0.545188, "balance": 1.245747, "dry_up": 0.85071, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14088, "annualized_volatility": 0.451754, "from_high_reference": -0.317495, "from_low_reference": 0.933967 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35406.31875, "fair_value_reference": 20547.799135, "structural_low": 27412.744141, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.042936, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010663, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188357, "worst_return": -0.002203, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041927, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.022315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.452695, "worst_return": -0.059212, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.025383, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.013197, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025383, "worst_return": 0.025383, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 36688.899219, 39660.585085, 39932.324442, 38006.604528 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34330.0, "volume": 18908, "typical_volume": 34681.6, "trend": 35406.31875, "fair_value": 20547.799135, "relative_strength": 0.626478, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.19675, "energy": 27.807147, "activity_lines": [ 35496.61224, 38301.680753, 39561.372889, 37957.288206 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }