{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b781348-4681-4da1-9c33-9f51c9b68276", "symbol": "S400", "name": "Invesco JPX-Nikkei 400 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.659, "architecture_energy": 33.243, "architecture_maturity": 48.73, "architecture_confidence": 87.19, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.88, "rotation_up": 36.7, "upward_expansion": 63.49, "deceleration": 93.93, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 12.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 21197.833333, 21189.272727, 20964.095238, 20673.462366 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 21882.5, "trend_reference": 20307.866667, "distance_from_trend": 0.077538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16635.747212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31539, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.815536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108929, "excess_performance": 0.057694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048631, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029656, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028155, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027973, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108929, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.136075, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 301, "relative_activity": 0.168519, "balance": 1.136075, "dry_up": 0.669317, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034165, "annualized_volatility": 0.206207, "from_high_reference": -0.40251, "from_low_reference": 0.289785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20307.866667, "fair_value_reference": 16635.747212, "structural_low": 18218.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.016037, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.007387, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.078096, "worst_return": -0.081028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.008646, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.009278, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.146089, "worst_return": -0.028039, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.060241, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002768, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.151521, "worst_return": -0.09207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015147, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.018699, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.114167, "worst_return": -0.10017, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015496, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023686, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04135, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012809, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0022, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.15947, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050646, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046774, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", 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21039.045455, 20830.040476, 20565.796774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21882.5, "volume": 301, "typical_volume": 1786.15, "trend": 20307.866667, "fair_value": 16635.747212, "relative_strength": 2.815536, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.659068, "energy": 33.242982, "activity_lines": [ 21197.833333, 21189.272727, 20964.095238, 20673.462366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }