{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b8d3c7a-ff91-4998-ac1c-bc993996dbb5", "symbol": "Z74", "name": "Singapore Telecommunications Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.465, "architecture_energy": 37.07, "architecture_maturity": 49.988, "architecture_confidence": 64.392, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.95, "rotation_up": 25.86, "upward_expansion": 16.66, "deceleration": 64.5, "rotation_down": 41.52, "downward_expansion": 66.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.341011, 4.336843, 4.414236, 4.528909 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.3, "trend_reference": 4.633744, "distance_from_trend": -0.072025, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.368603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276494, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.251561, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.088983, "excess_performance": -0.243818, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072025, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020556, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276494, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194035, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.202516, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088983, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526152, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131238000, "relative_activity": 0.954234, "balance": 0.526152, "dry_up": 1.169801, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039564, "annualized_volatility": 0.192548, "from_high_reference": -0.184061, "from_low_reference": 0.118618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.633744, "fair_value_reference": 3.368603, "structural_low": 4.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.03728, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.03134, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.130818, "worst_return": -0.002265, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.067994, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075187, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113543, "worst_return": 0.054853, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.062544, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067994, "worst_return": 0.057094, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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4.63186 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.301048, "volume": 120121600, "typical_volume": 129290924.0, "trend": 4.66003, "fair_value": 3.315605, "relative_strength": -17.926027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.968242, "energy": 55.860059, "activity_lines": [ 4.329617, 4.362886, 4.520608, 4.607928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.340148, "volume": 151434600, "typical_volume": 132000474.0, "trend": 4.653368, "fair_value": 3.328679, "relative_strength": -17.507941, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.597495, "energy": 46.148414, "activity_lines": [ 4.33494, 4.345624, 4.488951, 4.587291 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.291273, "volume": 159848400, "typical_volume": 132865485.8, "trend": 4.643744, "fair_value": 3.341099, "relative_strength": -19.341432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.280321, "energy": 49.151039, "activity_lines": [ 4.319295, 4.325836, 4.455972, 4.56393 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.44, "volume": 201020700, "typical_volume": 137937015.8, "trend": 4.639077, "fair_value": 3.3553, "relative_strength": -16.916185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.854154, "energy": 37.116809, "activity_lines": [ 4.35714, 4.342703, 4.440533, 4.550785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.3, "volume": 131238000, "typical_volume": 137532335.8, "trend": 4.633744, "fair_value": 3.368603, "relative_strength": -20.251561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.465303, "energy": 37.070117, "activity_lines": [ 4.341011, 4.336843, 4.414236, 4.528909 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }