{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b91c780-5c05-410e-9ff5-f6dbbdbbcb35", "symbol": "CTEC", "name": "GLOBAL X CLEANTECH ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.192, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.586, "architecture_energy": 53.792, "architecture_maturity": 10.889, "architecture_confidence": 70.822, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.91, "rotation_up": 17.18, "upward_expansion": 18.74, "deceleration": 45.25, "rotation_down": 68.89, "downward_expansion": 60.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.013553, 58.318573, 62.543676, 62.556928 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 58.4, "trend_reference": 62.200883, "distance_from_trend": -0.061107, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.650186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.758681, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029686, "excess_performance": -0.21714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061107, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs 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"Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.198035, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.163905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.198035, "worst_return": 0.198035, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.223625, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.194772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223625, "worst_return": 0.223625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.162293, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.008168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162293, "worst_return": 0.162293, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.289752, 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63.894045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 54.0217, "volume": 7984, "typical_volume": 20735.25, "trend": 62.25182, "fair_value": 46.766023, "relative_strength": -13.454987, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.586883, "energy": 59.669928, "activity_lines": [ 57.166244, 61.092871, 64.025632, 63.361776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.5466, "volume": 9414, "typical_volume": 18532.1, "trend": 62.169916, "fair_value": 46.683391, "relative_strength": -14.805563, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.114663, "energy": 64.14938, "activity_lines": [ 55.525667, 59.080013, 63.042925, 62.800149 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.4, "volume": 24896, "typical_volume": 18403.35, "trend": 62.200883, "fair_value": 46.650186, "relative_strength": -11.758681, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.585952, "energy": 53.792463, "activity_lines": [ 56.013553, 58.318573, 62.543676, 62.556928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }