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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.029, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.199, "architecture_energy": 21.508, "architecture_maturity": 50.327, "architecture_confidence": 70.672, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.93, "rotation_up": 35.12, "upward_expansion": 19.79, "deceleration": 42.46, "rotation_down": 25.6, "downward_expansion": 56.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.689999, 57.998181, 58.575701, 59.139143 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 57.849998, "trend_reference": 59.449265, "distance_from_trend": -0.026901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.71623, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.092068, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.428077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.010754, "excess_performance": -0.185001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.026901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013431, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.092068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024027, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214281, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.150795, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 795423, "relative_activity": 1.323686, "balance": 1.150795, "dry_up": 1.231939, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043814, "annualized_volatility": 0.300456, "from_high_reference": -0.134058, "from_low_reference": 0.066476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.449265, "fair_value_reference": 63.71623, 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"close": 57.299999, "volume": 645755, "typical_volume": 715830.0, "trend": 59.507638, "fair_value": 63.849269, "relative_strength": -22.628487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.349169, "energy": 59.565136, "activity_lines": [ 56.523334, 57.3, 58.991516, 59.308924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.599998, "volume": 695465, "typical_volume": 700419.55, "trend": 59.491056, "fair_value": 63.806813, "relative_strength": -18.793898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.281053, "energy": 36.56462, "activity_lines": [ 57.213333, 57.39, 58.860165, 59.250366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 59.200001, "volume": 663474, "typical_volume": 651847.7, "trend": 59.508748, "fair_value": 63.776487, "relative_strength": -18.434665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.106937, "energy": 20.668344, "activity_lines": [ 58.04, 57.609091, 58.780168, 59.231588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.75, "volume": 806801, "typical_volume": 640412.45, "trend": 59.524155, "fair_value": 63.759352, "relative_strength": -17.018958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.959664, "energy": 19.001203, "activity_lines": [ 58.81, 57.972727, 58.763394, 59.247153 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.849998, "volume": 795423, "typical_volume": 600915.3, "trend": 59.449265, "fair_value": 63.71623, "relative_strength": -21.428077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.198881, "energy": 21.508012, "activity_lines": [ 58.689999, 57.998181, 58.575701, 59.139143 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }