{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9b969b42-fa79-429e-b59b-b9bd89c517ff", "symbol": "BBAR", "name": "BBVA Banco Frances SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.304, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.014, "architecture_energy": 18.747, "architecture_maturity": 48.946, "architecture_confidence": 83.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.46, "rotation_up": 22.62, "upward_expansion": 54.9, "deceleration": 90.79, "rotation_down": 31.83, "downward_expansion": 20.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.485506, 19.10951, 18.268258, 17.502033 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.11, "trend_reference": 16.982381, "distance_from_trend": 0.007515, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.657015, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.35182, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.197579, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.039208, "excess_performance": -0.164833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007515, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05606, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.35182, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064209, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124644, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.039208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.374982, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2533128, "relative_activity": 0.829572, "balance": 1.374982, "dry_up": 0.749733, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.143556, "annualized_volatility": 0.636679, "from_high_reference": -0.235307, "from_low_reference": 1.243587 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.982381, "fair_value_reference": 12.657015, "structural_low": 12.583356, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.001599, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.011073, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.519428, "worst_return": -0.233256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.217949, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.119718, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.599492, "worst_return": -0.376045, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.077468, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.823389, "worst_return": -0.346111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.48546, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.259718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.07632, "worst_return": -0.23718, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.609352, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.286126, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.998967, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047974, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075724, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073158, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.289292, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08999, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103503, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.255162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111855, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108696, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092526, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.929524, "volume": 3724186, "typical_volume": 3109844.75, "trend": 3.794154, "fair_value": 2.590568, "relative_strength": 12.175606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.687482, "energy": 42.823527, "activity_lines": [ 19.983271, 19.559921, 17.873005, 17.261413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.784813, "volume": 2969206, "typical_volume": 3255247.75, "trend": 17.000305, "fair_value": 12.480526, "relative_strength": 13.273977, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.931138, "energy": 33.514484, "activity_lines": [ 19.521174, 19.584804, 18.080506, 17.377648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.854534, "volume": 1763649, "typical_volume": 3158588.65, "trend": 17.036263, "fair_value": 12.574875, "relative_strength": 12.362199, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.117556, "energy": 28.719943, "activity_lines": [ 19.284148, 19.538891, 18.270863, 17.497276 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.11, "volume": 2533128, "typical_volume": 3053536.05, "trend": 16.982381, "fair_value": 12.657015, "relative_strength": -1.197579, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.013938, "energy": 18.747293, "activity_lines": [ 18.485506, 19.10951, 18.268258, 17.502033 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }