{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ba118a0-9cd7-483e-8a56-7903d36076d2", "symbol": "5CT", "name": "ecoWise Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.041, "architecture_energy": 48.71, "architecture_maturity": 29.46, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.51, "rotation_up": 22.19, "upward_expansion": 9.28, "deceleration": 43.21, "rotation_down": 51.72, "downward_expansion": 82.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0146, 0.014745, 0.016114, 0.016731 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.015, "trend_reference": 0.0175, "distance_from_trend": -0.142857, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.052769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.715743, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.772215, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.321502, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142857, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104096, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.715743, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095389, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.357722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.299844, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.276743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 576200, "relative_activity": 0.046848, "balance": 0.276743, "dry_up": 0.159907, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14359, "annualized_volatility": 0.693463, "from_high_reference": -0.464286, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0175, "fair_value_reference": 0.052769, "structural_low": 0.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.026879, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": -0.24, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067778, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.105638, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.1, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.126148, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15, "worst_return": -0.15, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.287433, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-07-09", "end": "2021-08-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2021-08-20", "end": "2021-08-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2021-09-03", "end": "2021-09-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.304348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.078, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 0.078, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, 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0.014533, 0.015182, 0.016629, 0.017166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.014, "volume": 471600, "typical_volume": 12415945.0, "trend": 0.017733, "fair_value": 0.053173, "relative_strength": -40.094221, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.676406, "energy": 60.701931, "activity_lines": [ 0.014333, 0.014836, 0.016314, 0.016908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.015, "volume": 576200, "typical_volume": 12299360.0, "trend": 0.0175, "fair_value": 0.052769, "relative_strength": -35.772215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.041359, "energy": 48.709661, "activity_lines": [ 0.0146, 0.014745, 0.016114, 0.016731 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }