{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ba36083-2fa5-4d46-a03b-24e22d722c42", "symbol": "F13", "name": "Fu Yu Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.455, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.464, "architecture_energy": 32.968, "architecture_maturity": 4.379, "architecture_confidence": 63.204, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.49, "rotation_up": 18.85, "upward_expansion": 21.26, "deceleration": 52.75, "rotation_down": 53.57, "downward_expansion": 48.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.096267, 0.096655, 0.099729, 0.099103 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.098, "trend_reference": 0.098467, "distance_from_trend": -0.004739, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.114551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.144488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.626114, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.154835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004739, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001352, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.144488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.166261, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.21635, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4200400, "relative_activity": 0.340618, "balance": 0.285635, "dry_up": 0.194819, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054945, "annualized_volatility": 0.546984, "from_high_reference": -0.257576, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.098467, "fair_value_reference": 0.114551, "structural_low": 0.084, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005464, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.0234, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.072581, "worst_return": -0.053571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.018179, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.054552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.032258, "worst_return": -0.234973, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.009525, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.073478, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.024194, "worst_return": -0.338798, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.234591, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.269501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.168636, "worst_return": -0.300546, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047244, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074766, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050505, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031579, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.14, "volume": 3047400, "typical_volume": 1610390.0, "trend": 0.1955, "fair_value": 0.226466, "relative_strength": -30.344012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.108601, "energy": 98.040427, 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0.099757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.097, "volume": 2453100, "typical_volume": 12268720.0, "trend": 0.0986, "fair_value": 0.11584, "relative_strength": -16.550922, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.693771, "energy": 17.363126, "activity_lines": [ 0.097067, 0.099255, 0.100662, 0.099652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.094, "volume": 1433700, "typical_volume": 12208285.0, "trend": 0.0985, "fair_value": 0.115321, "relative_strength": -19.63202, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.934363, "energy": 34.068706, "activity_lines": [ 0.096, 0.097782, 0.100205, 0.099355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.095, "volume": 1522600, "typical_volume": 12168625.0, "trend": 0.0984, "fair_value": 0.114904, "relative_strength": -18.74747, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.817228, "energy": 36.30962, "activity_lines": [ 0.0956, 0.096836, 0.099833, 0.099129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.098, "volume": 4200400, "typical_volume": 12331685.0, "trend": 0.098467, "fair_value": 0.114551, "relative_strength": -16.626114, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.464033, "energy": 32.967891, "activity_lines": [ 0.096267, 0.096655, 0.099729, 0.099103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }