{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bad5fa3-af3c-47da-b30a-28e7ca7824e9", "symbol": "688468", "name": "Chemclin Diagnostics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.304, "architecture_energy": 42.538, "architecture_maturity": 92.377, "architecture_confidence": 66.638, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.43, "rotation_up": 25.36, "upward_expansion": 13.46, "deceleration": 66.89, "rotation_down": 42.12, "downward_expansion": 70.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.976, 5.966364, 6.28919, 6.589118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.22, "trend_reference": 7.0, "distance_from_trend": -0.111429, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.556944, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.176916, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.327716, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.216625, "excess_performance": -0.173421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111429, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077653, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.176916, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150783, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253853, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14969620, "relative_activity": 1.171871, "balance": 0.253853, "dry_up": 1.301281, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073213, "annualized_volatility": 0.281534, "from_high_reference": -0.317982, "from_low_reference": 0.130909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.0, "fair_value_reference": 7.556944, "structural_low": 5.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.013288, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": -0.027422, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.380148, "worst_return": -0.163121, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.082219, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.060385, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.386484, "worst_return": -0.191172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028824, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005925, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.477193, "worst_return": -0.259262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.961834, "energy": 61.057464, "activity_lines": [ 5.988, 6.093636, 6.524714, 6.816667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.55, "volume": 17754977, "typical_volume": 12967273.3, "trend": 7.087667, "fair_value": 7.594601, "relative_strength": -23.101149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.963572, "energy": 63.434294, "activity_lines": [ 5.852, 5.957818, 6.402429, 6.713312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.98, "volume": 12349530, "typical_volume": 12763189.1, "trend": 7.037333, "fair_value": 7.575034, "relative_strength": -16.995671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.260424, "energy": 53.773307, "activity_lines": [ 5.882667, 5.930545, 6.330667, 6.641849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.22, "volume": 14969620, "typical_volume": 12774122.95, "trend": 7.0, "fair_value": 7.556944, "relative_strength": -15.327716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.304497, "energy": 42.537745, "activity_lines": [ 5.976, 5.966364, 6.28919, 6.589118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }