{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bb0be4b-336a-4a48-8187-1e4c93f1d4e6", "symbol": "TTT", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHRT 20+YR TREAS(P/S", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.411, "architecture_energy": 75.423, "architecture_maturity": 12.229, "architecture_confidence": 70.824, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.05, "rotation_up": 77.04, "upward_expansion": 92.73, "deceleration": 41.88, "rotation_down": 8.59, "downward_expansion": 17.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.22882, 71.65665, 70.199687, 69.127519 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 74.6254, "trend_reference": 67.665167, "distance_from_trend": 0.102863, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 65.298348, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142837, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.727275, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.135871, "excess_performance": 0.010246, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102863, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029878, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142837, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089625, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007273, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106199, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135871, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.811026, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14586, "relative_activity": 0.569679, "balance": 0.811026, "dry_up": 0.774521, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051735, "annualized_volatility": 0.287357, "from_high_reference": -0.04059, "from_low_reference": 0.30662 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.665167, "fair_value_reference": 65.298348, "structural_low": 58.939178, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.006467, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.017535, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.360555, "worst_return": -0.240032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.005286, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.060661, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.491115, "worst_return": -0.28046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043026, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.08265, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.581231, "worst_return": -0.10445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.357472, "energy": 26.227898, "activity_lines": [ 68.741843, 68.363002, 68.311249, 67.564198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.7306, "volume": 16140, "typical_volume": 27360.4, "trend": 66.996638, "fair_value": 65.116844, "relative_strength": 3.817999, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.203829, "energy": 59.377751, "activity_lines": [ 70.757327, 69.252925, 68.858955, 68.01695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.932, "volume": 37830, "typical_volume": 28148.3, "trend": 67.34695, "fair_value": 65.222606, "relative_strength": 7.254473, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.831253, "energy": 77.887519, "activity_lines": [ 73.30024, 70.719175, 69.661642, 68.657941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.6254, "volume": 14586, "typical_volume": 25603.9, "trend": 67.665167, "fair_value": 65.298348, "relative_strength": 0.727275, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.410945, "energy": 75.422703, "activity_lines": [ 74.22882, 71.65665, 70.199687, 69.127519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }