{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bb1ba68-ebf8-4d5f-9ded-33439fde52aa", "symbol": "00885", "name": "Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.089, "architecture_energy": 32.233, "architecture_maturity": 4.833, "architecture_confidence": 69.583, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.75, "rotation_up": 19.95, "upward_expansion": 22.76, "deceleration": 51.72, "rotation_down": 57.14, "downward_expansion": 40.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.081333, 18.312545, 18.502619, 18.436279 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.219999, "trend_reference": 18.411667, "distance_from_trend": -0.01041, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.944231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306633, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.996137, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004372, "excess_performance": -0.383683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030908, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306633, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133243, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239961, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004372, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.440343, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11389828, "relative_activity": 0.660122, "balance": 0.440343, "dry_up": 1.04385, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03386, "annualized_volatility": 0.186917, "from_high_reference": -0.073245, "from_low_reference": 0.309849 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.411667, "fair_value_reference": 13.944231, "structural_low": 16.469999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.033411, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.039111, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0625, "worst_return": 0.004322, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.022534, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.11006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028646, "worst_return": 0.016422, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.033708, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.197862, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033708, "worst_return": 0.033708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011218, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038726, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.203288, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.107314, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060057, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024507, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003857, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 13.6, "volume": 89181096, "typical_volume": 64188124.75, "trend": 11.724667, "fair_value": 14.410248, "relative_strength": 1.151245, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.173203, "energy": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.899114, "energy": 12.312759, "activity_lines": [ 18.652666, 18.68509, 18.639857, 18.523226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.42, "volume": 25517275, "typical_volume": 18984384.25, "trend": 18.371667, "fair_value": 13.878526, "relative_strength": -27.323823, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.075879, "energy": 28.723592, "activity_lines": [ 18.218666, 18.44109, 18.543, 18.462494 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.15, "volume": 18961148, "typical_volume": 17895442.65, "trend": 18.404667, "fair_value": 13.912628, "relative_strength": -22.858068, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.107878, "energy": 27.764387, "activity_lines": [ 18.114, 18.36309, 18.520666, 18.448193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.219999, "volume": 11389828, "typical_volume": 17254126.45, "trend": 18.411667, "fair_value": 13.944231, "relative_strength": -23.996137, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.088717, "energy": 32.232873, "activity_lines": [ 18.081333, 18.312545, 18.502619, 18.436279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }