{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bb2ce37-3dc1-4411-a47a-ee8524a6abc9", "symbol": "VOF", "name": "VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.454, "architecture_energy": 76.237, "architecture_maturity": 22.88, "architecture_confidence": 84.047, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.45, "rotation_up": 11.36, "upward_expansion": 19.91, "deceleration": 34.22, "rotation_down": 76.99, "downward_expansion": 93.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 430.566667, 439.8, 448.164286, 452.69896 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 430.0, "trend_reference": 457.933488, "distance_from_trend": -0.060999, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 457.203147, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059499, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.947427, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05794, "excess_performance": -0.109175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060999, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012398, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059499, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082654, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149474, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100771, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05794, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.580924, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 983755, "relative_activity": 1.76359, "balance": 0.580924, "dry_up": 1.477555, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036225, "annualized_volatility": 0.184777, "from_high_reference": -0.139798, "from_low_reference": 0.046229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 457.933488, "fair_value_reference": 457.203147, "structural_low": 411.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.009227, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.012326, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.125926, "worst_return": -0.144835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010531, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005907, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.164303, "worst_return": -0.049318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055496, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.038672, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.224747, "worst_return": -0.169601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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69.68385, "activity_lines": [ 440.833333, 446.718182, 453.204504, 456.67174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 428.5, "volume": 789317, "typical_volume": 621519.65, "trend": 459.331637, "fair_value": 457.399485, "relative_strength": -15.459282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.903165, "energy": 75.443759, "activity_lines": [ 434.266667, 442.881818, 450.538095, 454.591323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 430.0, "volume": 983755, "typical_volume": 557813.9, "trend": 457.933488, "fair_value": 457.203147, "relative_strength": -14.947427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.453679, "energy": 76.237293, "activity_lines": [ 430.566667, 439.8, 448.164286, 452.69896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }