{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bb2e21a-1804-4734-aa80-073d4e17d03f", "symbol": "CHRT", "name": "Cohort plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.534, "architecture_energy": 12.919, "architecture_maturity": 36.137, "architecture_confidence": 69.551, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.11, "rotation_up": 36.02, "upward_expansion": 61.2, "deceleration": 79.56, "rotation_down": 22.7, "downward_expansion": 13.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 1277.866667, 1284.290909, 1270.438095, 1264.447312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1298.0, "trend_reference": 1246.266667, "distance_from_trend": 0.041511, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1007.285979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288611, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.425608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.177858, "excess_performance": 0.126623, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041511, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064019, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288611, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091444, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.177858, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.608564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 439564, "relative_activity": 0.758511, "balance": 0.608564, "dry_up": 1.285688, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118492, "annualized_volatility": 0.535308, "from_high_reference": -0.156047, "from_low_reference": 0.473238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1246.266667, "fair_value_reference": 1007.285979, "structural_low": 1062.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.013304, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.016054, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.162738, "worst_return": -0.189855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.011787, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.009619, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.096114, "worst_return": -0.336041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.140277, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.186318, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.206645, "worst_return": -0.266674, 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1242.816101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1304.0, "volume": 520964, "typical_volume": 612164.5, "trend": 1203.661566, "fair_value": 987.560615, "relative_strength": -0.828605, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.477373, "energy": 23.911628, "activity_lines": [ 1300.666667, 1281.127273, 1265.457143, 1249.975689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1300.0, "volume": 719880, "typical_volume": 603986.35, "trend": 1216.32996, "fair_value": 992.818772, "relative_strength": -1.338047, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.399184, "energy": 24.939339, "activity_lines": [ 1306.133333, 1289.818182, 1268.380952, 1256.191072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1290.0, "volume": 1415836, "typical_volume": 627502.85, "trend": 1229.364982, "fair_value": 997.756561, "relative_strength": -2.615182, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.644543, "energy": 34.511484, "activity_lines": [ 1306.133333, 1293.563636, 1270.314286, 1260.943977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1226.0, "volume": 404991, "typical_volume": 606651.5, "trend": 1240.333333, "fair_value": 1002.284094, "relative_strength": -7.980342, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.258342, "energy": 11.026302, "activity_lines": [ 1281.466667, 1282.654545, 1266.580952, 1260.726882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1298.0, "volume": 439564, "typical_volume": 579509.15, "trend": 1246.266667, "fair_value": 1007.285979, "relative_strength": -2.425608, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.53378, "energy": 12.91907, "activity_lines": [ 1277.866667, 1284.290909, 1270.438095, 1264.447312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }