{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bb5eb2b-8dbb-418a-96ad-fe743181729a", "symbol": "300430", "name": "Beijing Chieftain Control Technology Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.358, "architecture_energy": 86.032, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.33, "rotation_up": 30.0, "upward_expansion": 21.57, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 50.27, "downward_expansion": 90.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.457333, 4.517091, 6.126429, 9.071355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.69, "trend_reference": 13.204333, "distance_from_trend": -0.644814, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.790515, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.702986, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.617148, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.782367, "excess_performance": -0.789766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.644814, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269928, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.702986, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.224338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.726171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080266, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.782367, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.431456, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 46230838, "relative_activity": 0.933214, "balance": 0.431456, "dry_up": 1.199533, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170904, "annualized_volatility": 1.144624, "from_high_reference": -0.830502, "from_low_reference": 0.221354 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.204333, "fair_value_reference": 15.790515, "structural_low": 3.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.04177, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.036383, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.783484, "worst_return": -0.68325, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.044861, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.024747, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.642217, "worst_return": -0.744057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.261896, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.286394, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.568035, "worst_return": -0.768783, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 49196694.35, "trend": 14.183, "fair_value": 15.942217, "relative_strength": -77.362675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.444783, "energy": 69.329921, "activity_lines": [ 4.373333, 4.580909, 7.151286, 10.280495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.44, "volume": 61597986, "typical_volume": 49605997.75, "trend": 13.688667, "fair_value": 15.862861, "relative_strength": -73.316138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.713953, "energy": 65.025688, "activity_lines": [ 4.376, 4.514909, 6.587762, 9.651914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.69, "volume": 46230838, "typical_volume": 49539362.9, "trend": 13.204333, "fair_value": 15.790515, "relative_strength": -72.617148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.358119, "energy": 86.032488, "activity_lines": [ 4.457333, 4.517091, 6.126429, 9.071355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }