{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bb675d1-624c-4486-9e30-140d5b50dd18", "symbol": "APA", "name": "APA Group", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.427, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.041, "architecture_energy": 11.247, "architecture_maturity": 10.996, "architecture_confidence": 62.106, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.86, "rotation_up": 35.47, "upward_expansion": 55.93, "deceleration": 54.31, "rotation_down": 21.6, "downward_expansion": 20.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.112, 10.13647, 10.163079, 10.031929 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.91, "trend_reference": 9.774869, "distance_from_trend": 0.013824, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.891089, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.255847, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.482429, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.135166, "excess_performance": 0.07146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013824, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.255847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079558, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004824, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135166, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.793952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10602639, "relative_activity": 0.877258, "balance": 0.793952, "dry_up": 0.988047, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050457, "annualized_volatility": 0.207212, "from_high_reference": -0.081187, "from_low_reference": 0.213988 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.774869, "fair_value_reference": 7.891089, "structural_low": 8.66, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.014129, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.019018, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.044565, "worst_return": -0.130739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.008539, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.023926, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.185102, "worst_return": -0.171657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.047584, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.23506, "worst_return": -0.156017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.413471, "energy": 21.50241, "activity_lines": [ 10.13124, 10.161347, 10.14407, 9.948992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.28, "volume": 11346675, "typical_volume": 12489370.45, "trend": 9.698869, "fair_value": 7.865877, "relative_strength": 10.691996, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.796853, "energy": 21.103672, "activity_lines": [ 10.182333, 10.176873, 10.169946, 9.989095 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.19, "volume": 11901385, "typical_volume": 12512040.6, "trend": 9.737202, "fair_value": 7.879326, "relative_strength": 6.857898, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.232741, "energy": 19.298638, "activity_lines": [ 10.184667, 10.181126, 10.18225, 10.020781 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.91, "volume": 10602639, "typical_volume": 12086106.15, "trend": 9.774869, "fair_value": 7.891089, "relative_strength": 0.482429, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.040783, "energy": 11.247472, "activity_lines": [ 10.112, 10.13647, 10.163079, 10.031929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }