{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9bb75423-9cf9-4b24-aeac-41b94b8b6631", "symbol": "IGP", "name": "Intercede Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.794, "architecture_energy": 28.348, "architecture_maturity": 18.106, "architecture_confidence": 46.757, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.56, "rotation_up": 41.14, "upward_expansion": 66.39, "deceleration": 63.72, "rotation_down": 24.27, "downward_expansion": 9.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.114333, 1.108636, 1.097619, 1.069505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.18, "trend_reference": 1.0645, "distance_from_trend": 0.108502, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.308702, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.098343, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.906565, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.032787, "excess_performance": -0.084022, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.108502, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055178, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.098343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007765, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139066, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113719, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032787, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.417774, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 754061, "relative_activity": 0.991813, "balance": 2.417774, "dry_up": 0.949516, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093403, "annualized_volatility": 0.59217, "from_high_reference": -0.337079, "from_low_reference": 0.616438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.0645, "fair_value_reference": 1.308702, "structural_low": 0.73, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.088984, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.119747, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.046154, "worst_return": -0.224377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.069754, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.093432, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.274286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.219388, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.279448, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.058172, "worst_return": -0.282353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.440111, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.570871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.3241, "worst_return": -0.556122, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.300429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008287, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.144044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229965, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009036, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.092308, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.155235, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.141129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058296, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.49, "volume": 251, "typical_volume": 70851.95, "trend": 0.588167, "fair_value": 0.710981, "relative_strength": -8.039837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 1.065, "volume": 204278, "typical_volume": 798924.4, "trend": 1.084333, "fair_value": 1.293093, "relative_strength": -22.845929, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.135744, "energy": 8.238883, "activity_lines": [ 1.088667, 1.114727, 1.063167, 1.060473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.115, "volume": 1499400, "typical_volume": 853501.55, "trend": 1.079167, "fair_value": 1.296971, "relative_strength": -19.162405, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.908369, "energy": 10.981015, "activity_lines": [ 1.091667, 1.114091, 1.072571, 1.062452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.08, "volume": 212912, "typical_volume": 827070.45, "trend": 1.074333, "fair_value": 1.300625, "relative_strength": -21.793607, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.85681, "energy": 9.89064, "activity_lines": [ 1.083333, 1.107273, 1.078524, 1.062505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.07, "volume": 421241, "typical_volume": 830217.85, "trend": 1.067167, "fair_value": 1.304279, "relative_strength": -22.574568, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.451047, "energy": 5.883391, "activity_lines": [ 1.08, 1.097818, 1.083071, 1.062226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.18, "volume": 754061, "typical_volume": 760285.75, "trend": 1.0645, "fair_value": 1.308702, "relative_strength": -13.906565, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.79431, "energy": 28.348495, "activity_lines": [ 1.114333, 1.108636, 1.097619, 1.069505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }